WILD CARD TIEBREAKERS & POSSIBILITIES
If Three or More Clubs Are Tied:
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card.
Officially, the Ravens are not eliminated. However, much has to go their way in order to qualify for the playoffs:
1. Buffalo must lose to Pittsburgh in Buffalo. Under normal circumstances, that would be a possibility -- a good possibility but these are not normal circumstances. The Steelers have nothing to gain from this game having locked up home field throughout the playoffs. They are also a banged up football team and they could use the added rest for their starters. The Bills have also won 5 straight at home.
2. The Broncos must lose to the Colts in Denver. Again, similar to the circumstances above, the Colts have nothing to play for and the Broncos have everything to play for. Manning has already broken Dan Marino's record. My guess is that Manning will play a quarter before handing it over to Jim Sorgi. Perhaps Billick can place a phone call to his friend Tony Dungy and persuade him to stay with Manning and win the game. Don't count on it! Dungy would then play host to the Ravens again, something Manning would prefer not to do.
3. The Jaguars can win, but their strength of victory could push them over the top as the winner in a 4 horse race. With a Jaguars' win, their worst case strength of victory score would be 68. Their best case scenario would be 70. The Ravens worst case score would be 63 v. a best scenario of 68.
4. In the event that the Ravens and Jaguars tie in strength of victory scores, they would revert back to a two tie breakers and the one that would do the Ravens in would be record v. common opponents: Ravens 2-3 v. Jaguars at 3-2.
In conclusion, the best scenario is for Buffalo, Denver and Jacksonville all to lose. The Ravens would then be in the playoffs and headed back to Indianapolis.
|
Team |
Bills |
Ravens |
Broncos |
Jaguars |
|
Record |
9-7 |
9-7 |
9-7 |
9-7 |
|
v. AFC |
6-6 |
6-6 |
6-6 |
6-6 |
|
Week 17 |
Pitt |
MIAMI |
INDY |
@ Oak |
|
Strength of Victory * |
49/56 |
63/68 |
56/63 |
68/70 |
* Strength of victory: Worst Case Score/Best Case Score
THE BIRD GAUGE
Before watching the game yesterday, I was convinced that the game would unfold very much like the game played here in Baltimore between these clubs last December 28 when the teams engaged in a brutal battle for pride. With their proverbial backs up against the wall yesterday, the Ravens desperately needed a win to improve their post season chances. Unfortunately only one team showed up with the expected intensity and it wasn’t the good guys.
The Ravens looked tired. On both sides of the ball, they were continually beaten to the punch. Jerome Bettis wore down the defense’s collective will and they played with very little heart. For a team that boasted during the preseason, “How are [opponents] going to score? Who are they going to beat?” -- the answer yesterday was everyone. Let’s break it down as always, starting with the offense. QUARTERBACK Without help on the offensive front and without a running game, Boller although never sacked, was constantly pressured. His nifty footwork prevented sacks while sadly leading the team in rushing (28 yards). Boller was not without blame yesterday. He made a horrible throw to a wide open Clarence Moore for a would-be first down, two plays after a turnover on downs. Two plays later, they punted. His deep throws had terrific hang time but were so inaccurate they might not have hit water if he was throwing from a boat in the Monongahela River. When given time, Boller hit his target in the intermediate passing game. Boller needs to improve his cadence. Opposing teams are jumping his snap count. He may be tipping his snap with that pre-snap bounce, much like a pitcher may tip his pitches. RUNNING BACKS “Got nowhere to run to baby…nowhere to hide.” Sing it Martha Reeves & The Vendellas. Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor had very little room to run and when they did, they failed to accelerate to the holes or break tackles. None of the backs provided adequate protection for Boller in passing situations. Linebackers and safeties rushed freely off the edges on several occasions without even a remote chip from the protecting RB. RECEIVERS OFFENSIVE LINE Yesterday may have been this group's worst performance. Some offensive lines are better at one phase of the game than the other. This offensive line had no game at all against the Steelers. They created no room to run, little time to throw and they look like bulls in a china shop trying to coordinate blocking for a screen. It’s time for balance in the offensive line. The right side has to go. DEFENSIVE LINE Kelly Gregg and Tony Weaver were manhandled as was Kemoeatu when he played in the defensive line rotation. On a first and 10 from the Steelers own 8 yard line, the Ravens defense had a chance to pin down the Steelers. Instead, Jerome Bettis ran it up the gut for 7 yards. Kemoeatu was driven 10 yards downfield LINEBACKERS Two linebackers brought their A game on Sunday -- Adalius Thomas and Edge Hartwell. Ray Lewis was tentative and missed a few tackles and was beaten badly by fullback Dan Kreider. One has to wonder if the Ravens would have been better off using Bart Scott or T.J. Slaughter for the injured Lewis. Terrell Suggs made two very good plays, one on a tackle behind the line to force a fourth down and another on fourth down, in pursuit of Roethlisberger on a designed roll out. Otherwise, Suggs was very stealth -- hardly seen or heard. This unit continues to struggle to cover tight ends. SECONDARY The secondary was hardly tested but when it was, Roethlisberger seemed to connect at will, completing 67% of his throws. The first touchdown to a wide open Plaxico Burress was hardly a sharp route. Burress ran a simple post corner that seemed effortless as Baxter chased 3 yards behind. Randle El could have burned Chad Williams all day -- a big mismatch. Back to Baxter, he was at times in position to make plays yet played extremely tentatively. The Gary Baxter I used to know, would have stuck his nose in there aggressively to make tackles. Yesterday, he and several of the Ravens seemed to have Bettisitis. Poor and tentative tackling permeated the field on the Ravens side of the ball. McAlister was tentative on a corner blitz and bit badly on Roethlisberger’s pump fake. SPECIAL TEAMS The kickoff team was tested only twice and they provided decent coverage. The kick return team had more opportunities and they opened the game providing great field position for the offense -- position that was not taken advantage of especially after punting from the Steelers 35 gaining only 15 net yards of field position. Zastudil tried to get a little too cute and didn’t allow B.J. Sams to get downfield to down his pooch punt. Inside the 10 is just fine….you don’t have to try and kill it at the 1. Matt Stover hit a rare shank, that on the heals of last weeks kick into Bennie Anderson’s head. Uh-oh. COACHING As we reported last week in The Grapevine, Brian Billick has assumed the play calling chores. The results are no different. This entire offensive system needs to be blown up. It stinks! When they need 10 yards for a first down, the team runs patterns of 6 yards; a sense of urgency for the Ravens means talking faster when The coaching staff like the players, lacked a killer instinct yesterday. After a very efficient 11 play, 68 yard Ravens’ drive to tie the game at 7, the Ravens failed to capitalize on Will Demps’ interception. Facing a third and 8 from the Steelers 26, the Ravens line up in an I-formation with Ricard and Jamal Lewis in the backfield. Another play action pass as both backs go through the line and into the secondary to set up as outlet passes. The result: Boller under heavy pressure from James Harrison has his desperation pass tipped into the hand of Joey Porter. Why play action? Why doesn’t one of those backs help on Harrison who tortured the Ravens from the start? They have to get 3 points off that turnover. Instead, with the wretched play calling, they turn it over themselves and give away the momentum. Following a turnover on downs at the Ravens 32 with 3:09 remaining in the half, the Ravens run Jamal Lewis for a gain of one. How about a play to maintain the momentum instead -- maybe play action there would be more appropriate! Two plays later the Ravens punt. After they get the ball back again in the first half following the Randle El fumble with 0:37 remaining and the ball on the Ravens 30, the Ravens decide to run the football, a draw to Chester Taylor -- no gain. As the clock ticks down to 12 seconds, the Ravens then call for a pass with Kyle Boller rolling right. He throws it away and then they kill the clock on the next play with a run. First of all, why don’t you try and advance the ball 40 yards here, take advantage of the turnover and try to tie the game at 10 (the Ravens had 2 timeouts remaining)? And if you do want to do the passive thing and run the clock out, why throw on second down with 12 seconds left? This confusion on the field is a direct reflection of the coaching staff off the field. They are hardly professional when it comes to managing the clock. Have you heard that one before? I was also surprised by the defensive strategy. The Ravens were very successful against Eli and Peyton Manning moving in and out of defensive alignments to create confusion. Yesterday, the Ravens chose to set back in their base defense and let the Steelers come right at them. They did not try to disrupt the young QB’s rhythm. They allowed the Steelers to dictate the pace of the game and employ their smash mouth brand of football that has been a winning formula for the Steelers for 13 consecutive weeks. FINAL THOUGHTS * It’s fan appreciation day on Sunday. What we would appreciate is an NFL offense. ** Speaking of professional, that description uncharacteristically describes Joey Porter yesterday. Give this clown credit -- at least he was focused upon the task at hand. *** The Steelers had the ball for 28:37 seconds of the game’s final 45 minutes. **** The Ravens were once again embarrassed defensively by a team with a superior run blocking offensive line. It started in last season’s playoff game against the Titans. Then it was the Chiefs, then the Patriots and now the Steelers. ***** For those who believe that the Ravens are just a receiver away from going to the big dance, I think yesterday revealed otherwise. ****** Adalius Thomas’ post game comments included: “We didn’t play Ravens football.” I’m not sure what that even means anymore. Billick talks of profile and team identity. Last year, the Ravens had one. This year, they have seemingly lost one.


1/2
With 9:34 left in the second quarter, Todd Heap had 3 catches for 34 yards. Heap finished the game with those same totals. Blame should and will be extended to the play calling and how this team can’t free up it’s primary receiving threat more often. It is a sad state of affairs when your starting receiver is a rookie 6th round pick who wants to go over the middle about as much as a wounded gazelle wants to hop through a lion pride. Why the Ravens even bother to send Moore in the middle is a mystery in and of itself. Randy Hymes played well -- why he’s been on the bench is another mystery. He is the only receiver that this team has that seems willing and able to run with the football after the catch. Terry Jones, welcome back. Darnell Dinkins, have you seen James Harrison yet?
1/2
and eventually pancaked by Center Jeff Hartings. To start the second half and set the tone for the remainder of the game, Bettis took the half’s second play for a 7 yard run. No one in the Ravens’ front seven even touch Bettis until he was 4 yards downfield. This play was the first of 12 consecutive runs producing 62 yards, setting up the two yard toss from Roethlisberger to Tuman. Marquez Douglas was heavily involved (12 tackles) but often several yards downfield before making the tackle.



calling in the play to Boller’s headset; screens are disasters as are the quick pitches left -- these linemen are weak in the open field; two weeks in a row they did not adjust for a pass rusher off the edge that decidedly beat his man (Freeney v. Ogden and Harrison v. Brown/Brooks/Dinkins.); they continue to dictate plays with their personnel packages and formations; they use play action on 3rd and 9 fooling no one but themselves; they fail to involve Todd Heap enough; the list goes on…..