LOMBARDI'S WAY: Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later?

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Lombardi's Way - LOMBARDI'S WAY: Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later?

Why teams with cap dollars might race to sign players

Posted On: 3/6/07

Written By:

Tony Lombardi

LOMBARDI'S WAY: Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later?

The clock strikes midnight on March 2 signaling the opening of the NFL free agency season. Agents and players are suddenly the consummate practitioners of carpe diem. They are looking for their big slice of the free agency pie and some franchises with cap space willingly serve it up with whip cream.

The sense of urgency might seem peculiar to some. Why after waiting for years, sometimes entire careers, do players race to snatch one of the first offers to come along? Wouldn’t a little patience help to maximize what for some is a once in a lifetime opportunity?

Some have concluded that the offers extended might be too good to pass on and therefore why bother waiting? You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

A closer look at the new collective bargaining agreement (which by the way has yet to be signed by all required parties) might provide some clues. The new CBA uses a complex formula that considers league revenues in determining the following year’s cap number per team.

The CBA also includes a Minimum Team Salary which in 2006 represented 84% of the salary cap. Each year that number increases by a percentage of 1.2% and therefore 85.2% for 2007. The Minimum Team Salary will cap out at 90% of the salary cap.

The new CBA also states that the salary cap cannot decrease. Even if revenues shrink for the NFL, the players are protected. So not only will the salary cap increase each year or at the worst stay the same, each team is heavily encouraged to use no less than the Minimum Team Salary.

Teams that fail to meet the Minimum Team Salary must pay the shortfall to the players on the team’s roster during the year of non-compliance by April 15 of the following year.

Starting to sound like a Fram Oil Filter commercial?

Pay me now or pay me later!

Let’s put the numbers to test. Teams must spend $92.868 million of salary cap dollars (85.2% of $109 M) in 2007. So for any team that is more than $16 million under the cap, they better start spending or they will be charged anyway. It’s a bit like a country club that is going to hit you with a monthly food and beverage tab even if you don’t eat or drink at the club.

Some of those teams that were more than $16 million south of the cap like the 49ers, Patriots, Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Saints, Rams and Bucs went out there and started writing checks. If they have to spend, they may as well race to get the best available players, right?

Curiously, some teams that could stand to improve and have the cap dollars to do so simply observed. Not only were they not active engaging other teams’ free agents, in a few cases teams (see below) watched some of their own flee to other teams despite the cap space.

Under the salary cap
Team	Cap status (under)
Arizona Cardinals	$21 million
Green Bay Packers	$21.6 million
Minnesota Vikings	$28.7 million
Tennessee Titans	$18.5 million

The Cardinals certainly in need of offensive line improvement let tackle Leonard Davis go. The Packers in need of a better running game allowed Ahman Green to leave. The Titans have opened the door for offensive skill position players to run out of town. Popular receiver Drew Bennett is gone – he’s now a Ram. Leading rusher Travis Henry is now a Bronco and back up Chris Brown wants to be a Raven. While these players leave, the Titans remain silent on the embarrassment known as Pacman Jones.

What exactly are the Titans thinking?

Eventually these teams will pay. Perhaps they will re-negotiate current deals and accelerate signing bonuses in 2007 to free up cap space in future years. Many things are possible.

Another possibility is that the second tier free agents like Jamal Lewis and Chris Brown could get more money than they deserve. The Packers have to do some spending. Might they then offer Jamal Lewis significantly more than the Ravens who according to ESPN’s John Clayton sit at just $3.5 million under the cap as of March 2, good for second worst in the league? Or are the Packers saving up for a rumored trade with the Oakland Raiders for Randy Moss?

And what exactly are the Cardinals and Vikings doing?

Eventually, all of these teams will pay and if they must, you may as well get the biggest bang for your dollar instead of overpaying second tier players like Ahman Green. And that is why some teams view free agency as a sprint to their hunting stands so that when they have a clear shot at a trophy free agent, they make it their best shot.

Fire away…