LOMBARDI'S WAY: A CONSOLATION PRIZE FOR THE LOSS OF AD

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Lombardi's Way - LOMBARDI'S WAY: A CONSOLATION PRIZE FOR THE LOSS OF AD

A tag and trade scenario is possible if the Ravens All Pro decides to move on

Posted On: 2/13/07

Written By:

Tony Lombardi

LOMBARDI'S WAY: A CONSOLATION PRIZE FOR THE LOSS OF AD

Much has been discussed about the status of Adalius Thomas’ contract situation since the end of the Ravens’ season and until it is resolved, it will continue to be a hot topic. And should AD leave Baltimore, the topic could be even more debated.

The Ravens as of this writing are studying the options available to them, one of which could be a tag and trade deal involving Thomas. Given AD’s commitment to the organization, his team first approach, popularity amongst his teammates and his involvement in the community, the Ravens need to be careful with their handling of the soon-to-be coveted unrestricted free agent. The tag might provide convenience for the organization but it could have rippling ramifications on future player negotiations.

Assuming that the Ravens can find a trading partner and a contract that AD views as fair market value, the Ravens can soften the blow of AD’s loss with a player in return vis-à-vis the tag and trade.

Players consider many factors when making what amounts to a career change. In that regard, their decisions are not unlike the average citizen considering a new job. Besides the money, the organization is considered, its commitment to competing and of course how the change will affect one’s family. AD’s wife Sheri is a real estate agent on the upswing and the couple has a 6 year old son and 30 month old daughter.

What AD and his agent decide will undoubtedly be felt by his family. The inconveniences of change represent intangible value for the Ravens and collateral damage for AD’s suitors that must be offset monetarily.

But what if the Ravens can work a deal with Dan Snyder and the Redskins? Might that lighten the blow for AD and his family? Might a move 40 miles down the Baltimore/Washington Parkway be a bit less unsettling than a move to San Francisco, Boston or Green Bay?

It could.

What might the Ravens get in return?

Can you say Clinton Portis?

The Redskins discovered last year that Ladell Betts can capably fill in for Portis and they acknowledged that with a lucrative five year contract extension. Behind Betts there’s Rock Cartwright.

But what about the cap hit the Skins will take on Portis if he’s traded?

Back in 2004 Portis signed a five year deal with the Skins after being traded to them by Denver. The deal included a reported signing bonus of $17 million. Assuming that these figures are accurate, the accelerated portion of Portis’ bonus would be about $6.5 million that the Redskins would have to carry on their books in the event of a Portis trade.

And while no team cherishes dead money like that, it would be offset in part by Portis’ $3.5 million salary the he is set to earn in 2007. Portis’ future salaries under the terms of his deal are as follows:

Year	Salary
2008	$5,048,500
2009	$6,627,000
2010	$7,690,500
2011	$8,754,000

Portis will be 26 when the 2007 regular season begins. He played little last season in Al Saunders’ offense due to injury. Perhaps with Betts’ emergence and Cartwright’s potential Portis could be expendable. And clearly the Ravens have a need at running back.

But even if the Ravens could accommodate Portis comfortably under the cap (and that would be a challenge), is he the answer to the Ravens rushing woes?

During Portis’ 5 year career, he’s carried the ball 277 times on average, about 17 carries more per season than Jamal Lewis and we’ve seen how wear and tear has affected Lewis. Another similarity between Portis and Lewis is that their average rush per carry has both fallen in recent years. Over the last 3 seasons, Portis has averaged 4.1 yards per carry, down from an average of 5.5 in 2003. Lewis has averaged 3.8 ypc during that time, down from 5.3 ypc in 2003.

Is Portis a decent enough consolation prize for the potential loss of AD? Is he worth the money and cap space that he will surely require?

It’s and interesting argument but if I’m making the call, I would pass – no pun intended.

Back to the drawing board...