Scalpel Please

Hey Tony,

Nice show yesterday. It looks like the Ravens are playing a big game of "chicken" with Floyd Reese and the Titans. To put it in poker terms, the Ravens will win on the river card, but right now the flop favors the Titans. I know the operative word is patience, but I would have given Tennessee their 4th rounder and be done with it already. If so, Steve McNair could be practicing and learning Fassel's offense as we write.

Coupled with your guests comments and those of Dick Cass at the Spring Festival this weekend, we're headed for some big time roster/salary cuts in a couple of years, and I bet the staff has already painted a big mental target on the back of # 52, and probably a few others like Jonathan Ogden and Ed Mulitalo - assuming they're still here in 08. Maybe they ought to rename the salary cap structure "back-load your contracts."

It's a sad fact, but I'm now more certain than ever that Ray Lewis won't be with the Ravens after 07 - and maybe not after this year because of his contract demands. I'm still having trouble sifting through his comments on ESPN a week or so before the draft. If his beef was the lack of wide-bodies to free him up, then I think the Ravens filled that need admirably in the draft. But something tells me that he's after one more big payday. Unfortunately it be won't here or any place else, for that matter.

Would it make sense for the Ravens to cut bait early, and perhaps save the money for someone still in his prime - like Adalius Thomas?

Your thoughts please. Great show, great guests, as usual.

Fran from Glen Burnie

Fran, 

The Ravens will have some difficult decisions to make in ’07.  If they don’t come to terms with Ed Reed, I think the most certain things in 2007 will be death, taxes, continual talk about Barry Bonds and Ed Reed wearing the franchise tag.  The handling of Adalius Thomas will be very interesting.  Here’s a player who I would argue was the best Raven in 2005 and his importance to the defense is nearly immeasurable.  He’s a great teammate, solid leader and an outstanding contributor to the community.  He really is the quintessential Baltimore player.  Yet his contract demands will almost certainly force an invite from the Ravens to test the waters of free agency.

Now they could reach a gentleman’s agreement with AD and ask for the right of refusal which AD would more than likely grant.  In order to afford him, I can easily see a scenario in which the Ravens ask Ray Lewis to take a pay cut or take a walk.  Next year the Ravens could save $3.8 million against the cap by releasing Ray and $6.5 million in real Benjamins.  So yes, I could easily see those cap dollars distributed to AD.

I cannot envision a scenario in which AD and Ray are both Ravens in ’07.  In my estimation Ray is a 50-50 shot to be a Raven in ’07 and those odds slide considerably if the Ravens reach terms with AD.  I estimate Mulitalo at about the same with J.O. having a greater chance of remaining through the 2007 season.

As for the Ravens and McNair, I would have pulled that trigger long ago and given up the fourth particularly with compensatory picks on their way.  However, we are just 8 days away from that pivotal date of June 1 and I do believe there will be movement in the situation almost immediately thereafter.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that no other starting QB in the NFL falls out of favor with their team or is injured during mini-camps or while playing with their toddlers.

Thanks for the props and the great note as usual.

Rave on,

TL

1 in 100

Tony,

I am sitting at work listening to Gametime from Sunday.  I really wish I could get the broadcast somehow up here in New Jersey!! 

There has obviously been much talk about Steve McNair and the hope of him coming to the Ravens.  The point is constantly brought up that all Ozzie needed to do was give up a fourth round pick in order to get McNair.  It has been said that the fourth round pick for McNair swap is no longer on the table, that it is now a 1st day pick in the '07 draft.  That being said, I would agree that the trade for McNair for a 4th round pick on this past draft day is a wise investment 99% of the time, but I believe that we fell into that 1% during this past draft. 

What nobody has pointed out is that the fourth round pick we would have had to trade (since you can't trade compensatory picks) was the pick that was used on Demetrius Williams.  Many draft gurus and fans alike have said that he is not only the biggest steal of the Ravens draft but maybe the entire draft.  Williams obviously has not yet played in the NFL and therefore you honestly don't know how he is going to be, but the deal for McNair is for one year.  Is it worth giving up a steal like Williams for McNair for one year? 

I believe that the decision is now much harder to make.  A possible scenario of what happened on draft day is that the Titans and Ravens discussed a trade of a draft pick for McNair.  Ozzie was probably receptive to the idea prior to their pick (after all, as you have mentioned, he did trade a fourth round pick for Kevin Johnson), but when it was our turn to pick and Demetrius Williams was still on the board it was an opportunity that Ozzie couldn't pass up and chose to use the pick.  He turns around and in turn says that we aren't willing to trade a fourth, but will offer a fifth and the rest is of course very well known.

Just some thoughts that I had while I count the seconds until Training Camp.  Let me know what you think.

Mike in New Jersey

Mike,

Thanks for listening to the show.  Just so you know, you can listen live on WNST’s streaming.  Just log on to www.wnst.net and bang on the link that reads “Listen Live.”

When the Ravens introduced Haloti Ngata to the media on Day 2 of the draft, I believe that the draft was still in Round 6.  After a brief introduction of Ngata, Ozzie excused himself rather abruptly from the press conference while Eric DeCosta stayed behind.  Looking back on that event, I would speculate that Ozzie was still engaged in discussions with Tennessee.  And while Tennessee may have wanted a 2006 pick, I’m confident saying that a 2007 fourth rounder would have been accepted based on things shared with me.  And I do see McNair as not a one year solution but possibly a two or three year solution.  The financial terms of the possible McNair deal as reported by NFL.com ($11 million signing bonus, $1 million base salary) suggest to me that this is more than likely a three year deal.

As for Demetrius Williams, if you put any stock in rookie camps the guy looks like he’s a player and one with a bit of a chip on his shoulder.  Not a malcontent, just a player with something to prove to those that passed on him way too long.  I expect him to contribute in a way that other Ravens’ rookie wide receivers not named Clayton could only dream of.

Listen in to GAMETIME Mike and give us a shout out.  I’d like to see Mike from New Jersey’s name up on our caller board sometime in the near future.

Peace,

TL

Tony tone down the optimism

Tony,

Regarding Hensley’s column highlighted in The Grapevine, and the immediate need for McNair, a different view is like this:  Salary cap issues will force changes on the Ravens, and the sooner these are addressed, the better.  Mulitalo, Flynn, Ray, Ogden, Rolle or McCalister….some or all could be gone after this season.  Therefore, the emphasis should be on establishing the young guys both on the offensive line, and in the secondary (as you point out in the column).  In other words, this whole thing is bigger than one guy, and the Ravens’ conduct in the FA market signals that they realize they are already in a type of rebuilding mode.  The difference from 2002 is that they are looking for a soft landing by handling things smarter up front.  All of this reinforces the need to remain resolute in their negotiations and get McNair for a fifth/sixth round pick (or nothing at all).  I get the no-difference-between-a-fifth-or-fourth argument, but don’t buy it for two reasons.  First, the negotiation situation has indeed changed, in the Ravens favor.  Second, it’s like arguing that having four fingers is ALMOST as good as having five.  Maybe, but it’s still better to have five.

The other thing I think of when I hear you and the guys talk about making the playoffs with McNair is that you are really setting yourselves up for some disappointment.  One hit, one injury to McNair or a lot of other guys can completely preclude any hope of a playoff bid.  They are hard enough to come by even under the best of circumstances.  When you set your expectations at the highest end of possibility you’re going to be disappointed.  If you’re the kind of person who can shrug that off and still be upbeat, that’s cool.  You’re that type of person.  But there are a lot of people out there who aren’t like that.  They will totally invest themselves in the McNair/playoffs thing, and when (in my opinion) it doesn’t happen, their emotions will swing like a screen door in the other direction, and they’ll get extremely negative.  On McNair, on the Ravens, on Ozzie, on whoever.  That’s something to avoid.

We’ve had The Sun and WBAL doing the unrealistic optimism thing for years with the Orioles, and we don’t need that with the Ravens.

Bill from Northeast

Bill,

As always a thoughtful email.

I personally don’t see the Ravens in a rebuilding mode or in a win-at-all-costs mode either.  I see them somewhere in between.  As you’ve correctly pointed out, the Ravens have been conservative in the free agent market and that suggests an eye on something beyond this season.  On the other hand their interest in McNair means that they want to restore their winning ways now!  Can they do both?

The commitment to the young players today will help the team deal with the probable cap casualties of 2007 and beyond.  How Chris Chester and Brian Rimpf play in ’06 could influence cap decisions on Mulitalo and Vincent.  How David Pittman and Derrick Martin perform might shorten Samari Rolle’s tenure with the team.  Even Dan Cody’s play might play a pivotal role in the amount of money AD is offered by the Ravens.

With regard to the high expectations, I fully embrace the notion that the Ravens can effectively compete for a playoff berth in ’06.  I think McNair makes that kind of difference along with the maturation of the young players.  And while the Ravens with McNair could have their playoff hopes thrashed if McNair is injured, the same could be said of the Steelers, Bengals and even the Browns if there are injuries to any of Roethlisberger, Palmer and Frye.  Imagine the Colts without Manning or the Patriots without Brady.

If you can’t envision yourself as a champion, you’ll never be one.  And if you fail for whatever reason, a real champion at heart dusts himself off and has at it again.

GO RAVENS,

TL

Bring on Big Daddy!

Hey TL,

Do you think we should pursue "Big Daddy" Dan Wilkinson, 6'4”, 353 pounds?  He and Ngata would be the Adams-Siragusa tandem that I believe we need.  Since Gregg is a high motor guy he can be put in on passing downs. But [with those] 2 guys in the middle, I don't think 1 team would go over 100 yards on us the whole season. 

Wanted to get your opinion on this.

Paul, Baltimore

Paul,

Despite his obvious physical tools that haven’t declined much with age, the knock on Wilkinson is that he takes too many plays off and wears down late in games and late in the season, which suggests poor conditioning.  That is not the time for a DT to wear down.  Last year Wilkinson in 16 games had only 26 tackles for the Lions’ 23rd ranked defense against the run as compared to Kelly Gregg’s 61 tackles and the Ravens 9th ranked rushing defense.

It’s my understanding that Wilkinson has been an astute investor and after 12 seasons, he might be prepared to call it a career and move on to the next phase of his life.  It’s my opinion that the Ravens need to see what they have in Dwan Edwards.  I’m told that Edwards has worked very hard this offseason and he could be positioned to have the kind of year expected of a second round pick.  Moreover, I don’t see Gregg as a situational interior pass rusher.  He’s more of a two gap first and second down DT than a penetrating one gap guy.

Maybe all that talk about Ray Lewis and the two big tackles is just that – talk.  Remember that Ray won his 2003 DPOY behind Kelly Gregg in a 3-4 defense.  Maybe Ray just needs to shut up and play, just as Rex Ryan has previously suggested and then maybe the Ravens could improve upon that 9th ranked rushing defense.

Here’s to Buddy Lee,

TL

Friendly breeze from the Windy City

TL,

For what its worth.....

I am a die hard Ravens and Baltimore fan living in Chicago!!  I moved from Baltimore (born and raised) 10 years ago and can't find a way to root for any other teams.  I just love the Ravens and the Orioles and I always find myself talking-up Baltimore sports wherever I go. 

My folks still live in Baltimore, but as I travel from town to town out in the US (first Philly, then Denver, now Chicago) I really love the fact that being a Baltimore fan stays with you no matter what.  I feel like there's a certain character to Baltimore fans that just can only be understood by us: we're kind of the underdog, the small city, but the one with a ton of heart because we really appreciate our teams.  Between the Orioles, Baltimore Colts, and the Ravens our city has 5 total national championships! 

Anyway, it’s a nice line to throw out at bar discussions in other cities!  It fun to watch as they try to prove it wrong and cannot!  Anyway, there’s plenty of Ravens fans (as I've discovered) all around the US and I thought I'd let everyone know.

I have one question, then a comment.

Question:  I feel like if they don't get McNair they should just let Boller open it up and let loose with the passing game.  Let him start passing like crazy, and throw the long and short ball as much as possible.  He'll throw so many interceptions, but maybe, just maybe, he'll have a better learning curve than he has while being held back.  In the past it was "let's wait for our defense to run back an interception for a TD", [or] “Don't throw too much.”  I doubt Boller will ever work out in Baltimore but let’s at least let him find his limits. What do you think ravens24x7.com?

Comment:  Thanks for the Gametime MP3 download of your Sunday radio show!  I ride the train everyday to work here and look forward each Sunday to downloading the show each week for my ride.  Keep up the good work.  Ravens24x7.com is really helping the Ravens and the city if you ask me.

Later,

John B., Chicago

John,

Thanks for sharing your experiences.  That is refreshing to hear particularly for someone like myself that has never lived anywhere other than The Land of Pleasant Living.  I’m also happy to hear you taking advantage of the mp3 downloads.  There are more of those to come in our soon to be re-designed site.

As for your question about Kyle Boller, I think for the Ravens to just open it up, go full throttle on the passing attack and throw caution to the wind would be a major mistake and it would prove to be a strategy that would assure them of a high draft pick in 2007.

I will say this that Boller does seem to do much better when they are behind and are forced to throw or when the opposing team doesn’t pressure him with a variety of blitz packages.  You may recall a couple of games against Cincinnati when Boller rallied the team against prevent defenses.  And of course his defining moments in the NFL came against the Vikings and Packers – two teams that failed to blitz effectively. 

I don’t mean to take away from Boller’s performances against those teams because he consistently hit his hot reads and had a very good third down conversion rate in both games.  But ultimately, teams familiar with Boller don’t respect his ability to throw downfield and therefore they compress the field, choking off the run and leaving little room for error on the intermediate passes.  It also invites the blitz when the fear of repercussion is minimal.  That doesn’t bode well for the running game because it invites too many defenders into the box and if you can’t run at all in the NFL, you will never be consistently successful winning football games.

Sure, Boller’s stats could improve by opening things up but the ultimate stat – wins, won’t improve.  I would suggest the threat of the long ball, a commitment to play action and not some half-assed fake (Boller’s ball skills need improvement) and a variety of sub packages that don’t tip off offensive tendencies.  Hey, maybe one of his girlfriends like Petra up there on the sidelines might also help distract opposing defenses.

Oh and one more thing, let’s change up the cadence a little every now and then.

On 2…break,

TL