Letters 2 TL: Running on Empty?

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Letters 2 TL - Letters 2 TL: Running on Empty?

Posted On: 1/24/07

Written By:

Tony Lombardi

GET ZABRANSKY

Tony,

Now that the season is over, figured I'd ask you some draft questions again, like this time last year. :-)

My first question is, do you think the Ravens will draft a quarterback, such as Jared Zabransky from Boise St., somewhere between the 3rd and 5th rounds? I only really watched Boise St. against Oklahoma this season, but I really liked what I saw from Zabransky. He looked like he had a presence about him, unlike Boller. Not to mention, he looked like he has a decent arm and mobility. I hope the Ravens take a good look at him. I actually dvr'd that game in the second half because I liked the way he was playing. Little did I know the game would turn out [like] it did.

My other question concerns the running game. People say they wouldn't mind bringing Lewis back as a between the tackles back. Isn't that what Mike Anderson was with the Broncos?? I hope the Ravens don't go that route. Do you think Ozzie/Ravens would be inclined to trade up for a running back like Adrian Peterson or Lynch? Normally I would think not, but I didn't know what kind of mentality they were taking, in regards to next season. Is next season going to be a go for broke, chips all in season? If so, might as well take a swing for Peterson or Lynch.

Thanks,

Paul Moss

Paul,

I think the Ravens realize that their window of opportunity is closing given the aging high profile veterans. Next year they will go at it hard and try to equip the team to get to Arizona on February 3, 2008. The feeling I get is that they’d like to stay status quo for the most part but make improvements in the running game. Jamal could be part of the picture but certainly not the central figure. If he is, I expect the team to come up short again. They’ll need some juice in the rushing department and instead of just acquiring a big expensive impact player, I think next year will be about refining the offensive line and the blocking schemes they employ. There’s very little that they do schematically that keeps opponents off balance.

Moving up to get Peterson will be costly. To move up into that top 10 would be the equivalent of two picks like the one the Ravens have at 29 or a package of other picks. If they go for broke next year, they’ll need to rebuild through the draft and that won’t happen as quickly with fewer picks obviously.

I can’t say I’ve seen much of Zabransky other than highlights against Oklahoma. What I’m told from folks that have studied him is that he’s a sponge and willing to learn and put the team goals ahead of his own. He’s been compared to Brees and if he’s put in a system that allows him to develop, he could become a winner with the right coaching. Where he goes is anyone’s guess prior to the combines. He could slip to Day 2.

That being said, I do expect the Ravens to draft a QB at some point.

Here’s to a great offseason,

TAG YOU'RE IT!

Hey Tony,

Saw your article on AD and his show. Reports say that he likely WILL be franchised, which means he will likely be back. Did he mention anything about the franchise tag, or did he really think we were just going to let him go? I think it is smart just to tag him this year, and no matter what, let him go next year (as the 2008 season will be a bit of a rebuilding stage anyway, even though we should still compete because of the young talent) with other vets (as he would be 31 entering that season). Thoughts? Thanks.

Sincerely,

John Staniewicz

John,

I think he'll be tagged and then the Ravens will have an exclusive window to negotiate with him. I'm told he isn't happy about the thought of a tag but that's the biz of the NFL.

The piece that you referenced was written more from the perspective of a fan and was interestingly the idea of another fan who wants the Ravens to hear the collective cry of all Ravens fans as it relates to AD.

Please make your comments on the blog about AD. I will forward the link to the Ravens PR department if the blog is substantive.

One thing that I think we all need to be mindful of. The Ravens can’t keep all of their defensive talent. Eventually the cap will be too skewed that way and if it is, balance is hard to achieve and balance is why the Patriots are always a threat (Tom Brady doesn’t hurt either.) You won’t find the Patriots having the No. 1 defense or offense. They are usually just solid everywhere. Only one Patriot made it to the Pro Bowl and it wasn’t even Brady – imagine that!

cheers,

TL

WHERE IS WEST RIVER?

Hi Tony,

I’ve been a big fan of yours over the years, from being a loyal listener of your radio program to checking your website almost daily. I find you to be analytical, objective and a glass is half full type of person. You do an outstanding job and provide a yearly outlet for passionate Ravens fans. I hope your website will provide a lot of draft information.

Thanks for sharing that Eric DeCosta believes the Ravens priorities are to upgrade the OL and Inside LB positions. I occasionally see you on MASN, any chance of being back on radio again?

Many, many thanks.

West River Mike

Mike,

I remember your call a few years ago...I asked where West River is. Thanks for the note and your support. I really appreciate it.

We are back on the air...Friday nights from 7-9PM on 1300. We post our shows on our site each week in the event you can’t tune in. Our downloadable version is commercial free and free for you to download.

As for the draft, we will have more coverage on air than on the site. We'll do some on the site which is Ravens-centric and I'll be picking Eric DeCosta's brain on that. He did say that he would come in studio with me for an entire show and the tentative plan is to have him on Feb 2. We’ll confirm that

I'll be sure to make that clearly stated on the site and I'll probably announce it more next Friday.

Hope to hear from you soon...

TL

BURNER TURNER < NO. 1?

Tony,

I hope you are well. I love your site and articles. Great stuff!!

I hear a lot of talk about the Ravens needing a RB. I agree with your comment about Jamal Lewis leaving yards on the field. JL has become an average RB. However, not sure JL is the major problem with our running game. Our OL has done a great job protecting the QB, but our O-line is not so good blocking for the run. It seems as if the majority of our rushing yards come late in the game when the opposing defense is tired and demoralized. It would be interesting to see the Ravens stats for total rushing yards and yards per carry broken out by quarter.

Also, how many carries resulted in 2 or fewer yards? We probably led the league in that category.

During the Indy game I was amazed to see the Ravens win the toss, choose to receive the ball and get a total of 3 yards rushing the ball the first 2 plays of the game. That series set the tone for the game. How can your offensive line allow this to happen at the start of the game? They had to be extremely fired up and couldn’t get more than 3 yards on 2 rushes? That’s hideous!

Great coaches have said you have to be able to get 1 yard rushing the ball when you need it or you don’t deserve to win the game. The Ravens cannot get 1 yard rushing in short yardage situations. Pittsburgh did it all year last year. It wasn’t the running backs, it was the line. On 3rd down and 1, good teams run the ball and get the yard…it’s smash mouth football and it sends a message. On 3rd down and 1 or 2, the Ravens have to pass. How many times have you seen our RBs get hit in the backfield on a short yardage play? That should not happen.

Not sure I would give up a 1st rounder for Turner. I would rather see the Ravens take the best OL with the first pick. If not, possibly a CB or MLB. Turner runs behind the same line that opens holes for LT. His success could be due to the line and not necessarily his ability. Even LT would have problems running behind our OL.

Our offense seemed to be successful in the 2nd half of the year because our play calling was unpredictable. The Ravens play calling kept defenses off balance. We lost that creativity during the game in Cinn. I attributed it to short week, but I was surprised to see the Raven go back to conservative play calling during the playoffs with 2 weeks to prepare. I think the Ravens thought they could run the ball, eat up the clock and keep Peyton off the field. Unfortunately, that type of game plan didn’t work during the first 6 games or the last game. It is disappointing because winning the Superbowl was a real possibility this year.

Mike N., Falls Church, VA

Mike,

I think the Ravens inability to run consistently can't be pinpointed to one thing. It is partly JL's fault, partly the line's fault, partly the “at times” predictable play calling and partly the way the Ravens block. They do very little trapping or pulling. It's straight ahead pile driving and sometimes zone blocking. When you do that all the time, defensive linemen don't have to worry about keys and they can just attack. They don't have to hesitate to make reads like defenses do against more active lines.

Your observations regarding the Ravens inability to move the chains when they run on third and short are right on and a bit embarrassing for a team that is supposed to be physical. And while I do believe the size of the line and Lewis wears down opponents, they do it by shear volume. It’s not like they are thrashing defenses late. In fact the opposite is true.

Lewis averaged only 2.9 yards per carry between his 21st and 30th attempts. Overall in the fourth quarter he averaged 3.1 yards per carry and that number falls to 2.6 yards per carry when the game’s outcome is within 7 points. On third down Lewis averaged only 1.9 yards per carry.

I think Turner is the real deal and I think if he was in this year’s draft, he’d be a first round pick. He has little mileage on him and if the Ravens think that he’s more of player than they can get at the bottom of the draft, they might consider Turner although that isn’t the Ravens M.O. and I’d be surprised if they went that route. I think LT is special and he makes that line look better than it is.

Run to daylight…if you find any,

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...

Tony,

As a long-time Ravens fan, I find your critiques of the Ravens to be very astute. I especially agree with your assertion that Brian Billick didn't allow his offensive playmakers to impact the game, especially in the Denver, 2nd Cincinnati, Buffalo and Indy games.

I believe that Billick has a tendency, under the pressure of big games and playoff games, to revert to the "profile" of the 2000 team. That profile is to control the time of possession through a tough running attack, don't take any offensive risks, ie: deep shots, and utilize short passes. The problem this year is that the central component of that profile, Jamal Lewis, is not close to being the break-away threat that he was in 2000.

It is also baffling that Billick attacked Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Kansas City with a more dynamic, risk-taking approach.

Priorities for next year's offense must be to find a more explosive,
break-away threat at running back, shore up the OL, and to utilize a game plan that allows our playmakers to do what we pay them to do.

Regards,

Noel Albizo

Noel,

Thanks for the kind words. Interesting thoughts about Brian Billick and I can easily see him being the type of personality that reverts back to what worked before when in doubt. But that 2000 offense was a different Ravens offense as you suggest. They are different than in 2003. The biggest differences in the running game are JL’s declining skills, accumulated mileage and the absence of Jim Colletto. His blocking schemes were game planned for the opponent according to Edwin Mulitalo. Chris Foerster stresses technique and execution with less regard to the opponent.

Hopefully Billick paid close attention to the playoffs and noticed how others are more daring during the league’s second season and let’s hope further that he incorporates that into his approach. The daring keeps opponents on their heels in my opinion.

Be bold,