Updated Playoff Tiebreakers for Week 15

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Filmstudy - Updated Playoff Tiebreakers for Week 15

The post season picture for the Ravens is beginning to clear

Posted On: 12/17/09

Written By:

Ken McKusick

The Ravens made just about as much progress as they could have last week and now appear to be the favorite to secure a Wild Card.

The Ravens might make it with either a 10-6 or 9-7 record, as we’ll see below. The 1 PM trifecta of the Ravens win over the Lions combined with losses by Jacksonville and Denver have the Ravens with destiny virtually in their own hands again. While they require some help to make the playoffs, there are now several plausible scenarios that will result in a wild card.

Were the playoffs to start today, the Ravens would be out with Denver (8-5) and Jacksonville (7-6, 6-3 in conference) taking the last 2 spots. Division leaders Indianapolis and Cincinnati have clinched and are close, respectively. The complete conference standings can be found here:

NFL Standings

The tiebreaker rules are here: NFL Tiebreakers

First, let’s talk about some of the important tiebreakers vs. individual teams:

Broncos and Chargers: Won Head to Head (HTH) vs. both teams

Bengals and Patriots: Lost HTH, so must beat them outright

Steelers: The Ravens won the first meeting with the Steelers, so they now cannot lose the HTH tiebreaker, but the Steelers can knot that one up with a win at Pittsburgh. The Ravens (3-2 in division) have already clinched the division record tiebreaker, however (Steelers 1-4 in division). An important component of 3+ way ties is that divisional tiebreakers are resolved first to have a single representative from each applicable division. This fact means the Steelers can’t be bailed out by a 3-way tie that includes a team from another division.

Conference Tiebreakers for Wild Card vs. teams the Ravens did not face HTH (All of these assume the Ravens finish 10-6, which means they win their remaining 4 games and finish with a conference record of 8-4):

Jaguars: 7-6 (6-3) with 3 AFC remaining: Ind, @NE, @ Cle. The Ravens cannot win the Conference TB vs. the Jaguars at 10-6, because Jacksonville will finish with a conference record of 9-3. The Ravens must hope Jacksonville loses at least 1 of their last 3 games to finish no better than 9-7.

Dolphins: 7-6 (5-4) with 3 AFC remaining: @Ten, Hou, Pit. If the Ravens finish 10-6, the Conference TB vs. the Dolphins will be tied if the Dolphins also run the table. Were that to occur, the Ravens would beat the Steelers and win the common opponent tiebreaker versus the Dolphins. The complication regarding the Dolphins occurs if they win the East and NE finishes in a tie with the Ravens (see below).

Jets: 7-6 (5-5) with 2 AFC remaining: @ Ind, Cin. The Ravens will win the conference tiebreaker vs. the Jets @ 10-6 (8-4 to 7-5).

Patriots: 8-5 (5-4) with 3 AFC remaining: @Buf, Jax, @Hou. The Ravens will lose by HTH if they finish in a 2-way tie with the Patriots, so they would much rather have NE win the East. The Patriots and Dolphins are tied HTH and will be tied in the division if NE wins at Buffalo on 12/20. If both teams finish 10-6 with the aforementioned NE win at Buffalo, the common opponent tiebreaker would be invoked and Miami has already clinched that against NE. So the Ravens need NE to win as many or more games as Miami down the stretch. There are a number of possible 3-way ties involving the Ravens, so we’ll leave that for another week or 2.

Broncos (used only in the event of a 3+ way tie with entrants from 3 separate divisions): 8-5 (6-4) with 2 AFC remaining:

Chargers (used only in the event of a 3+ way tie with entrants from 3 separate divisions): 10-3 (7-3) with 2 AFC remaining:

Now, let’s put the pieces together and look at the Ravens 3 most likely paths to the playoffs:

1. Win the AFC North Outright: This requires the Ravens to win their remaining 3 games while Cincinnati loses their remaining 3 to win outright (10-6 vs. 9-7). It’s certainly a long shot, but more likely than the Ravens winning the Wild Card at 8-8.

2. Win the Wild Card with a record of 10-6: It’s a lot easier for the Ravens if New England wins the AFC East, since the Pats hold the HTH tiebreaker against the Ravens, so let’s look at that first. In that case, the Ravens will win their remaining 3 games, finish at 10-6 (8-4 in conference), and would win a Wild Card if either of the following occurs:

The Jaguars lose any game (outright 9-7). The Ravens will lose the conference tiebreaker with the Jaguars at 10-6 because the Jaguars will be 9-3 in conference.
The Broncos lose any game (Ravens win by virtue of HTH) OR the Chargers lose all 3 games (Ravens win by virtue of HTH).

In the event New England finishes 10-6, but loses the East to Miami, the Ravens will still win the Wild Card if both of the above events occur.

3. Win the Wild Card with a record of 9-7: This requires the Ravens to win 2 of their last 3 games, and if they are to lose a game, it would be best if it came to the Bears. In that case the Ravens would win the wild card if 3 of the following 4 occur:

The Jaguars lose 2 games (outright, 8-8). Alternatiely, the Ravens might win by the strength of victory tiebreaker (conference tied at 8-4, common opponents tied 3-2) if the Jags lose 1 game, but they currently trail Jax by 1 game if Jax beats NE and Cle for their final 2 wins (the best scenario for Baltimore). If the Jaguars beat Indianapolis, a SoV tiebreaker win for the Ravens becomes very unlikely.
The Jets lose any game (conference 8-4 to 7-5 or 6-6).
The Dolphins lose a game (conference 8-4 to 7-5) while the Patriots win the AFC East OR the Patriots lose all 3 remaining games. It is also possible for the Ravens, Patriots, and Broncos to end in a 3-way tie where the Pats are eliminated if they lose 2 games.
The Broncos lose 2 games (HTH)

Alternatively, if the Ravens remaining loss comes to an AFC team, the Ravens can still win a Wild Card if 3 of the following 4 occur:

The Jaguars lose 2 games (outright, 8-8)
The Jets loses to either Ind or Cin (conference 7-5 to 6-6)
The Patriots win the AFC East while the Dolphins lose to Pit OR the Ravens beat Pit (both would result in no resolution from the conference tiebreaker, but the Ravens would win the common opponent tiebreaker by a game). Alternatively, the Dolphins can lose to both Tennessee and Houston (outright 8-8). As yet another alternative, the Patriots could lose all 3 remaining games while Miami wins the East. If the Ravens do not win outright or by common opponent, they trail significantly in the SoV tiebreaker vs. Miami.
The Broncos lose 2 games (HTH)

None of the other teams that can finish 9-7 (Steelers, Titans, Texans) can win a 9-7 tiebreaker versus the Ravens. The Ravens can’t win the division with a 9-7 record, since the Bengals have won the HTH.

The important games (Ravens’ desired winner in bold with a 1 to 5 scale for importance) not involving the Ravens for the remainder of the season are:

12/17 Ind @ Jax (5)
12/20 NE @ Buf (5)—NE will both lose the tiebreaker and fall into a tie with The Jets and Phins if they lose this one.
12/20 Mia @ Ten (4)
12/20 Atl @ NYJ (1)
12/20 Oak @ Den (5)
12/20 Cin @ SD (3)—Yes, last week we were rooting for Cincy to win this one
12/26 SD @ Ten (1)
12/27 Hou @ Mia (4)
12/27 Jax @ NE (5)
12/27 Den @ Phi (5)
12/27 NYJ @ Ind (4)
12/27 KC @ Cin (5)
1/3 Jax @ Cle (5)
1/3 NE @ Hou (4)
1/3 Cin @ NYJ (4)
1/3 Pit @ Mia (4)
1/3 Was @ SD (1)
1/3 KC @ Den (5)

One thing to notice from above is that the Colts will play a huge role in getting the Ravens to the playoffs if they can win their games against Jacksonville and the Jets. Ravens fans are rooting for NE each week to avoid the possibility that they lose the AFC East. We are rooting for SD to lose the last 2 games should they lose to Cincinnati this week, but once they win any game, we won’t be contending for a playoff spot with them. The Ravens would like the Jets to lose 1 of their AFC games or both of their NFC games.

Please email me if you find factual errors here and I’ll correct for the next update.