There still seem to be a number of folks that think the Ravens win the division merely by beating Pittsburgh on December 14th, but in fact the likelihood of the Ravens winning any tiebreaker against the Steelers is remote.  Here is the status of all Ravens tiebreakers updated through the game of 12/8/08:

1st Tiebreaker:  Head to head.  The best the Ravens can do is tie for this one with a win on December 14th.

2nd Tiebreaker:  Divisional record.  To win this tiebreaker, the Ravens need to beat Pitt in the aforementioned 12/14 game.  In addition, the Steelers would need to lose at home to Cleveland in the final regular season game.  It would be wonderful to see Cleveland beat their ancient rival with a 3rd-string QB, but it’s unlikely.  The most likely result, if the Steelers and Ravens are tied at season’s end is that both teams are 5-1 in division.  That said, when you look further down the tiebreaker list, this is still the best shot for the Ravens to win a tiebreaker vs. the Steelers.

3rd Tiebreaker:  Common opponents.  Each team in division plays 14 common opponents and 2 “uncommon” opponents.  It’s actually easier to see the common opponent tiebreaker by looking at uncommon opponent results.  The Ravens (Miami, Oakland) and Steelers (New England, San Diego) have both swept their uncommon opponents.  If this tiebreaker is necessary, it is certain to be a tie.

4th Tiebreaker:  Conference record.  By the time we get to this tiebreaker, all of the following must have happened:

• The Ravens and Steelers have the same overall record (or no tiebreaker)
• The Ravens have beaten Pit on 12/14 (or 1st tiebreaker decides it)
• The Steelers have beaten the Browns (or 2nd tiebreaker decides it)

To summarize the entire conference record tiebreaker…the Ravens can’t win it, but they have a remote hope of forcing the 5th tiebreaker.

5th Tiebreaker:  Strength of Victory.  This is a tiebreaker upon which I didn’t expand last time I wrote this, but with 3 weeks left in the NFL regular season there is a slim chance of it being needed, so let’s discuss.  If this tiebreaker is needed, The Ravens and Steelers will both be 11-5, with the following exact sets of opponents defeated:

Ravens: Hou, Jax, Cin, Cin, Cle, Cle, Pit, Oak, Mia, Phi, Was

Steelers: Hou, Jax, Cin, Cin, Cle, Cle, Bal, NE, SD, Was, Dal

We can toss out the head-to-head, and all common victories, leaving:

Ravens: Oak, Mia, Phi (combined record 18-20-1 through week 14)

Steelers: NE, SD, Dal (combined record 21-18 through week 14)

In addition, the Ravens must lose to Dallas for this tiebreaker to be important, so Pitt’s Ponies are starting with a base record of 22-18.  The remaining games of consequence (result needed by Ravens in bold) are as follows:

• SF @ Mia
• SD @ KC
• NE @ Oak (2)
• NYG @ Dal
• Cle @ Phi

Week 16 (only 5 points because the Ravens must lose to Dallas this week)

• Ari @ NE
• Mia @ KC
• SD @ TB
• Hou @ Oak
• Phi @ Was

Week 17

• Oak @ TB
• Mia @ NYJ
• Dal @ Phi (2)
• NE @ Buf
• Den @ SD

Look at it as a season with 17 available points, of which the Ravens need to take 12 to win the tiebreaker.  It will have to start with the positive results in both of the 2 point games and an 8-5 edge in other results.  You’ll also note that Miami can help the Ravens win this tiebreaker by winning out, but if the Dolphins do so, the Ravens wild card chances are reduced.  The 6th tiebreaker (Strength of Schedule) would only be used if 1 of the above 13 1-point Strength of Victory (“SoV”) games ends in a tie.

NOTE: There appears to be a glitch in the Yahoo Playoff Forecasting Model because we cannot get it to acknowledge a Ravens edge on strength of victory even tilting the remaining results.  The glitch in the software could stem from the inability to properly measure the Eagles v. Bengals tie.

AFC North tiebreakers (in all cases, assume Baltimore beats Pittsburgh next week):

Both teams at 12-4: 5-1 in division, 9-3 in common games, but Pittsburgh wins on CR (10-2 vs 9-3).

Both teams at 11-5, PIT loses to CLE: Baltimore wins on DR (5-1 vs 4-2)

Both teams at 11-5, PIT loses to TEN and BAL loses to JAX: 5-1 in DR, 8-4 in CG, Pittsburgh wins on CR (9-3 vs 8-4).

Both teams at 11-5, PIT loses to TEN and BAL loses to DAL: DR, CG, and CR all deadlocked. It comes down to SOV, where the differences are...

PIT beat NE, SD, DAL (21 right now)
BAL beat MIA, OAK, PHI (18.5 right now)
There are NE-OAK and DAL-PHI games which would double-count here.