Gamblers will tell you that your results will often be a function of the results on your large bets.  For example, if you typically bet $50 on 10 games a week, but bet $500 the 10 times all season that you think you see a good opportunity, your overall results are going to be highly skewed by your success on those 10 bets, even if you post an outstanding winning percentage (let’s say 55%) on the 170 small bets.

How does that relate to Sunday night?  Flacco had 4 throws intended for Torrey Smith that had risk, but the possibility of much greater reward.  Had he connected on 1, his night would have improved significantly and had he completed all 4, we’d be in agreement that he’d had a fine game against a good pass defense despite lingering accuracy concerns.

Flacco targeted Torrey Smith on each of the 4 plays in question: 

·         (Q1, 12:41):  Revis had single, press coverage on Smith down the right sideline.  The Ravens used the now-familiar fake run left to make time for a longer route to develop as Flacco rolled right off play action.  Vonta Leach was the lone blocker in front of him and Flacco had ample time to set up and throw as Pace maintained a short middle zone in front of Leach.  Flacco’s slightly overthrew Smith who eventually had Revis beat by half a step.  It was good coverage by Revis who obstructed Smith’s original break off the line and slowed him with hand checking for the last 15 yards.

·         (Q1, 6:44):  Torrey Smith ran a post route from a bunch formation right.  Torrey had Leonard beaten in the end zone, as Flacco unleashed a missile towards the right goalpost.  However, Eric Smith who was at the 2-yard line near the right hash (approximately 6 yards in front of Torrey) leapt and got a piece of the ball to avert the TD.  Flacco again had ample time and space, but with a standard pocket.

·         (Q1, 4:09):  Torrey Smith was again lined up in a bunch right before Leach motioned into the I formation.  This time Smith got single coverage from Eric Smith between the hash and the right numbers.  The line of scrimmage was the 42 and Flacco’s arcing pass was underthrown, causing Torrey to slow and leap near the 10.  In that circumstance I like the chances for Torrey to either outmuscle/outleap the Jets’ safety or draw a pass interference call, but Eric got a piece of the ball, and it fell incomplete.

·         (Q2, 6:30):  Smith was lined up wide right and covered by Cromartie.  Flacco set up to throw in a standard pocket, but was pressured and hit by Bart Scott who beat Gurode on a delayed blitz.  Joe overthrew Smith by 5 yards down the right sideline.  Cromartie was even with Smith but Torrey had inside position which opened up the inside of the field well behind Leonard.

This night he didn’t connect on any of these longballs, but future opponents are going to respect the Ravens willingness to throw deep.  When Evans returns, both the Ravens run game and short passing game should improve.

The Ravens had 70 offensive snaps, excluding their 3 kneels:

McKinnie:  Bryant had a fine game as a pass blocker with no contributions to negative plays as I scored it.  Let’s face it, that’s what is most important at left tackle.  His run blocking is another matter and a source of some frustration each week.  He simply doesn’t contribute much when the play is run up the middle or to the opposite side.  That can take several forms from releasing his block too early (see his touch-and-release effort vs. Westerman Q3, 10:35) to shuffling into level 2 without making an attempt to block or even obstruct anyone.  He had 2 pancakes and 2 blocks in level 2.  I believe the Ravens aren’t running much to the left now both because their strong run blockers are on the right and Gurode is playing poorly.  However, McKinnie would look better if more of the runs were to his side.  Scoring:  62 blocks, 8 missed, 62 points (.89 per play). 

Gurode:  Andre was spun by Devito for a QH on the Ravens first play from scrimmage (Q1, 14:52).  He would surrender a 2nd QH to Bart Scott who beat him inside with a delayed blitz (Q2, 6:33).  Scott beat him for a pressure with an earlier delayed blitz (Q1, 3:18).  He was flagged for holding Harris who had beaten him to negate Rice’s 4-yard run (Q1, 11:35).   To cap off the night, he allowed penetration by Pitoitua which resulted in a 4-yard loss for Rice (Q4, 3:37).  He did not attempt to pull, but had 9 blocks in level 2 and 2 pancakes.  While he made some contributions to the running game with those second-level blocks, the Ravens successful and time consuming 3rd quarter drive was all runs to the right behind Yanda and Oher.  Scoring:  61 blocks, 5 missed, 1 penetration, 1 pressure, 2 QHs, 1 holding, 45 points (.64 per play).  Since the Ravens lost Ben Grubbs they have had 3 lousy performances at LG.

Birk:  Matt had another solid outing.  He again avoided pass blocking mistakes and his biggest error was the false start on the bad snap.  My concern with Birk isn’t the lack of push he is getting, but the way he is occasionally pushed well back into the backfield.  On Sunday Pouha did that twice to him (Q4, 11:50 and Q4, 8:31).  Neither play resulted in a loss, but those are the type of penetration that can blow up a running play or cause a sack.  He had 4 blocks in level 2 and 2 pancakes.  He and Yanda are playing very well together.  It would be terrific if Birk could integrate his efforts more effectively with Gurode the way he had with Grubbs, but most of Andre’s problems have been cases where he has been beaten inside.  Scoring:  68 blocks, 2 missed, 1 false start, 65 points (.93 per play).

Yanda:   There isn’t a guard in the NFL playing any better right now.  I have scored him with less than a full QH (5/6 vs. the Rams) and no other pass blocking errors in 4 games.  The Ravens unleashed the run-right-until-you-prove-you-can-stop-us offense midway through the third quarter.  Yanda was the linchpin with 5 blocks in level 2 and 1 pancake as the Ravens ran 7:26 off the clock with 4 first downs, no passes, and 11 consecutive runs to the right.  Marshal’s 2 highlight blocks on the drive were a 9-yard bulldozing of Devito (Q3, 4:29) and a 6-yard push on the giant Pitoitua (Q3, 3:53).  For the game, he had 11 blocks in level 2 and 2 pancakes.  He pulled successfully on his only attempt.  Scoring:  67 blocks, 3 missed, 67 points (.96 per play).

Oher:  This game he wasn’t penalized, but gave up parts of 5 separate negative events.  He got a full charge for the sack (Q2, 5:24) which was triggered by a pair of delayed blitzes.  Eric Smith first beat him to the inside then Brodney Pool beat him outside.  Pace beat him outside for a QH (Q2, 13:29).  He shared a penetration on the play that resulted in Rickey Williams’ fumble (Q4, 10:23).  The rookie who stuck to a jersey and blocked past the whistle has changed his style, but he did manage to get Bart Scott upset with him to the point he got up, straddled Oher, and punched him in the chest (Q3, 6:36).  I scored him with 6 blocks in level 2 and 2 pancakes.  Scoring:  62 blocks, 3 missed, 1 pressure, 1.5 penetrations, 1 QH, 1 sack, 48 points (.69 per play).  Schematically, the Jets defense is excellent at exposing weakness and indecision.  Michael was a victim Sunday.

Other Offensive Notes:

·         The Ravens played every snap with 5 offensive linemen in a balanced formation.

·         I scored Flacco with ample time and space (ATS) on 19 of 31 drop backs (61%).  With ATS, Flacco completed 8 of 19 throws for 134 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT (7.0 YPP).  That’s the 2nd consecutive week Joe has had 7.0 YPP for what should be the best opportunities.  Said otherwise, Joe duplicated a very poor result on his ATS throws although he had more such opportunities.

·         In sharp contrast to his game against the Rams, without ATS Joe was 2 of 12 for 29 yards (21 net including 2 sacks for -8, 1.8 YPP) with 0 TD and 1 INT.  He fumbled once and it was recovered by the Jets.  While he had fewer pressured opportunities, his results dropped to somewhat below the expected level even for being pressured.

·         I’ve written at length about the difficulty Joe has had in dealing with a 4-man rush.  That’s not uncommon given that an effective 4-man rush is one of the most potent defensive weapons.  On Sunday, the Jets rushed 4 20 times and 3 on 3 occasions.  While many of those 23 plays resulted in ATS, 2 of the eligible receivers were covered by the Jets’ corners which often left 5 defenders to cover the other 3.  That’s a simplification, but it gives a sense of what the Jets can do when they are comfortable with single coverage on the outside.

·         The interception was a miscommunication.  Rice stopped running just as Flacco may have lost sight of his teammate.

·         Flacco targeted Cromartie just once (Q2, 6:30, see above) and Revis twice.  In a game where the Ravens were clearly dominating defensively, that would fall into the second tier (after running the ball) of safe offensive strategies.  So, most of the throws were targeted for receivers that were covered by safeties or linebackers.  That doesn’t make me feel better about the Ravens’ passing game Sunday.

·         Torrey Smith was targeted 6 times and had just 1 catch (a WR screen) for 1 yard.

·         Flacco was forced to call a timeout (Q1, 2:42) because Smith set up on the wrong side of the field.  He looked visibly frustrated as he held his arms out from his side while Torrey moved over too late.  On the plus side, the long catch and run by Rice was aided by a pair of downfield blocks by Smith on Revis and Leonard.

·         Dickson was targeted 12 times with just 4 completions.  While Flacco wasn’t always on target, Dickson bears a share of the blame with poor hands on some of Joe’s best throws.  The examples are his drop of a slightly high throw (Q2, 5:30), his attempt to make a 1-handed catch by the left sideline (Q2, 14:16), and his drop on Joe’s perfect touch pass by the left sideline on which he could not maintain possession as he hit the ground (Q2, 11:25).

·         Dickson and Pitta are each struggling as blockers.  Versus the Jets, Dickson shared a penetration with Oher (Q4, 10:23) and Pitta was flagged for holding (Q4, 10:23, these were consecutive plays both labeled with the same time in the Gamebook).