The word outcoached is very overused, but Sunday the Ravens and Patriots were each presented with a difficult and potentially unpopular win probability decision.

After Flacco’s failed QB sneak on 3rd and 1, Harbaugh was faced with a difficult 4th and 1 decision at the Ravens 47.  He chose to punt and leave the game in the hands of a defense that had just surrendered a 9-play TD drive.  Make the first down and the Ravens have a chance to extend the lead from 3 and run more time off the clock.  Fail and they give the Pats excellent field position.

If you use the win probability model on advanced NFL stats, you’d see the Ravens’ chance to win was approximately 61% after the punt.  Had they made the 1st down, the chance would have jumped to 80%.  Had they been stopped at the LoS, their chance would have dropped only to 52%. 

So what was the required likelihood to make the 1st down that would have made the risk worthwhile?  A little less than 1 success in 3.  Traditional “wisdom” says punt, but last year’s Indianapolis game is strong empirical evidence that the man on the other sideline would have gone for it.

Conversely, the end-of-regulation Hail Mary is something you don’t see many teams attempt in a tie game.  It was dangerously close to succeeding.  Reviewing the play, Hamlin and Webb went up initially and each had good position to box out, but it was Hamlin who deflected the ball off Ray Lewis, who then tipped it off Webb’s foot, and onto the chest of Hamlin, where Ken eventually wrapped it up.  Was it a worthwhile gamble?  The Patriots essentially had 2 outcomes which favored them (TD catch or any sort of defensive penalty, which would have allowed a subsequent FG attempt) and 1 very unlikely outcome that might have cost them the game (INT or sack run back for a TD).  In my opinion the former is perhaps 8-10 times as likely as the latter.  Given the Patriots chance to win in OT was perhaps 50-55% that was clearly a good gamble.

The Patriots ran 72 offensive plays excluding Brady’s kneel.

Overall:

Vs. the Run:  25 plays, 128 yards, 5.1 YPC

Vs. the Pass:  47 plays, 267 yards, 5.7 YPP

Overall:  72 plays, 395 yards, 5.5 YPPA

By number of defensive backs

Goal Line (3 DBs):  1/2, 2.0 YPPA

Standard (4 DBs):  28/195, 7.0 YPPA

Nickel (5 DBs):  35/149, 4.3 YPPA, 2 sacks, 1 TO

Dime (6 DBs):  7/44, 6.3 YPPA, 1 sack, 1 TO

Quarter (7 DBs):  1/5, 5.0 

By number of pass rushers

3 or fewer:  7 plays, 0 yards, 0.0 YPP, 1 sack, 1 TO

4:  23/219, 9.5 YPPA, 1 sack, 1 TO

5:  11/41, 3.7 YPPA, 1 sack

6:  5/7, 1.4 YPPA

7+: 1/0, 0 YPPA. 

Individual Notes:

·         DPOY Watch:  Ngata continues to demand attention, but is still finding opportunities to beat 1 man.  He was again the best player on the field Sunday despite the fact that the Patriots did not run often up the middle and had 47 pass plays.  On his first sack (Q2, 1:57) he lined up at LDT and beat Koppen to the OLS as Light and Connolly doubled Redding.  On his 2nd sack, he again beat Koppen to the OLS and swung Brady down by his jersey.  His crunching QH (Q4, 5:15) set off a tantrum by Brady who pounded the turf while looking at the umpire and demanding a flag.  Ngata diagnosed a screen pass and forced Brady to ground the ball (Q3, 7:20), he shed both Neal and Vollmer to record a tackle for no gain (Q2, 5:10).  On consecutive plays early in the 2nd half he worked off Vollmer and kept pace with Woodhead to the sideline on a stretch right (Q3, 13:21) and the frustrated Vollmer then took an illegal formation penalty when he lined up opposite Haloti and too far from the LoS (Q3, 12:49).  He wasn’t perfect as he was blown up on a 3rd and 1 run (Q1, 1:49) along with Gregg and McKinney for a 3-yard gain and then he was stood up by Vollmer on the Pats first TD (Q1, 0:29) on the same drive.

·         One player for whom the Ravens had no answer was Rob Gronkowski.  He caught just 1 pass for 24 yards (Q4, 5:15), but flopped for the key pass interference call on Webb (Q4, 13:41) on the Patriots touchdown drive, and made several fine blocks that were key to the Patriots success running off both edges.  Examples are (Q4, 12:57 on Nakamura) and (Q4, 6:27 on Suggs).

·         As much as the Ravens played a patient, effective game against Tom Brady, his receivers had a number of drops.  Hernandez had a drop to begin each of the first 2 OT drives for the Patriots.  On both series, the Pats went 3 and out.  Woodhouse had a drop (Q2, 10:12) as did Crumpler (Q2, 10:08), and Welker (Q2, 4:34).

·         In the context of all the defensive snaps the Ravens were on the field in Q4, it surprised me that there are 2 Ravens in whom the coaches don’t seem to have great confidence.  Terrence Cody played just 1 snap (Q1, 0:29, the Pats first TD) the entire game.  He’s not polished, but he’d create opportunities for other pass rushers to a greater extent than Kelly Gregg.  The other forgotten Raven is Cary Williams.  After being the team’s most effective corner in the preseason, the coaches have been unable to find him any rotational snaps, even in a game like this with Wilson out and the Ravens playing lots of dime.  I’m a big believer in keeping a rested defensive unit on the field and that should extend to cornerback if you have the talent to do so.  The sparkling play of Webb in 17 snaps against Pittsburgh is the best example I could cite.  I’d also ask the question…Is Cary Williams on the outside, covering a slot receiver, or even a spot in the zone, much more of a liability than Ken Hamlin or a tired Washington or Carr?

·         The Ravens used the quarter defense (7 DBs) for the first time this season on 3rd and 18 (Q3, 7:17).  This variety had 4 safeties (Hamlin, Landry, Nakamura, Zibby) and 3 corners (Carr, Washington, Webb). 

·         Zbikowski’s injury was not apparent on TV other than the Ravens’ personnel reaction.  Nakamura played all of the remaining snaps as the Ravens were outscored 13-0 (disclaimer: the preceding is a simple statement of fact and not an indictment of Mr. Nakamura).

·         Ken Hamlin played another 8 snaps in dime and quarter.  He primarily lined up next to Ray Lewis and replaced either Ellerbe or a lineman.  He was credited with a tackle for loss that he did not make (OT, 13:13, Carr and Landry made the tackle).  His other 2 tackles were both on running plays and substantially past the LoS (Q3, 7:17, 5-yard gain on 3rd and 18), (Q4, 12:57, 14-yard gain on 2nd and 11).  The regulation-ending deflection/ pick was his highlight.

·         It’s reasonable to expect a defense to tire in a 73-minute game, but the defensive line was particularly overworked.  Ngata played 59 of those snaps including the first 27!  Ngata’s first missed snap came at (Q3, 12:30).  Gregg and McKinney each played 34 snaps and Redding 42.  McKinney’s total was 8 higher than his previous career high against the Steelers in Week 4.  Divens, Kruger, and Arthur Jones were all inactive, so with Cody and Jones playing a single snap each, the Ravens essentially used just 5 defensive linemen.

·         The lack of rest took its toll on the Ravens in the 4th quarter.  Suggs was forced to sit out a play (Q4, 2:46, replaced by Edgar Jones) on the Patriots’ game-tying drive just 2 plays after the Ravens had called timeout.  Ngata also needed to be removed for 4 plays (beginning at Q4, 4:00) and was replaced by McKinney.

·         The Patriots showed little desire to run in the 2nd half.  They threw a large number of short passes to the outside, particularly on 1st and 2nd down.  I’m a little surprised the Ravens were still returning to a base 4-3-4 at times in the 2nd half and OT.  With the no huddle, the defensive coordinator needs to think ahead and plan for 2nd and 3rd down with his base personnel.  Obviously, short yardage opportunities against the nickel make it more difficult to stop the run.  However, from the defense’s perspective, the run typically has a much lower downside than a sustained passing assault against 4 DBs with a tiring pass rush.  With 4 DBs, the Ravens allowed 195 yards on 28 plays (7.0 YPPA) with no sacks or turnovers.

·         For the last 3 weeks, the 4-man pass rush has been wholly ineffective.  When rushing 4 on Sunday, the Ravens allowed 219 yards on 23 plays (9.5 YPP) including 1 sack and 1 interception.  For the last 3 weeks, it’s been 51/443 (8.7 YPPA).  That said, when the Ravens rushed 3 on Sunday they held the Patriots to 0 yards on 7 plays (1 sack, 1 INT).

·         What’s going to fix the Ravens’ pass rush (you say anxiously as the trade deadline approaches)?  The best tonic would be an outside pass rusher with some versatility.  Of players on the roster, that might include a healthy Kruger, Edgar Jones, or perhaps a repositioned McClain.  If those options aren’t attractive, the Ravens might try to acquire a player.  I think it’s more likely, however, that they will need to scheme for pressure by using Ray Lewis, Carr (off the slot) and the safeties for more pressure.  It’s scary to think what might happen if the Ravens were to lose Suggs at some point.

The Ravens’ 3 biggest Defensive plays:

·         Ngata’s 2nd sack (Q4, 0:40):  The Ravens MVP delivered a 10-yard sack on 2nd and 10 that all but made the Pats give up on an attempt to win in regulation.

·         The stop of the Pats on 3rd and 3 at the 5 (Q4, 2:01):  After 2 timeouts, a 4-play rest for Ngata, and a play off for Suggs, the Ravens finally stopped the Pats 13-play drive.  Ngata and Suggs returned to the field.  The Ravens rushed 4 with Suggs and Johnson dropping to cover.  Almost simultaneously, McClain, Ngata, and Redding all hit the ground as Lewis was effectively blocked and Brady slid left to survey the field.  At that moment, Suggs streaked for Brady, knocking him down immediately after his release.  Carr had good coverage on Branch to help force the overthrow.

·         Carr’s Interception (Q3, 11:50):  Landry hit Brady as he threw high.  After the 12-yard return, the Ravens would score to lead by 10.