Once again, we’re not ready for a full discussion about the Wild Card this week, but it’s fun to consider the division tiebreaker with the Bengals in the event they are tied with the Ravens for the division lead after their New Year’s Day meeting.  After 9 weeks, this single division tiebreaker is enough to consider.  First, let’s look at the results and upcoming opponents:

Ravens (6-2): @ Sea, Cin, SF, @ Cle, Ind, @ SD, Cle, @ CIn (2-0 in Div, 1-0 vs. non-common opp, 4-2 in Conf, 2-0 vs. NFC)

Bengals (6-2):  Pit, @ Bal, Cle, @ Pit, Hou, @StL, Ari, Bal (1-0 in Div, 1-1 vs. non-common opp, 5-1 in Conf, 1-1 vs. NFC)

By tiebreaker:

Head –to-Head:  It’s the first tiebreaker and neither of the 2 games has been played.  I can’t imagine either team will sweep the season series and fail to win the division. 

Division Record:  It’s the 2^nd tiebreaker and the Ravens have the upper hand based on their sweep of Pittsburgh.  For Cincinnati to with the division tiebreaker, the Ravens will have to lose at least 1 game to Cleveland while Cincy sweeps their other Cle/Pit games and splits with Bal.  For the Ravens to win the tiebreaker, they need to sweep Cleveland and hope than Cincy loses at least one of the Pit/Cle games.  The Ravens could then afford 1 surplus loss in non-divisional games relative to Cincinnati.  Outside of the divisional games, the Bengals have only Houston, St Louis, and Arizona on the schedule.  The Ravens still face Seattle, San Francisco, Indianapolis, and San Diego.

Common Opponents:  The chance of the division falling to a common opponent tiebreaker is dependent on all of the following:

·         The Bengals and Ravens split

·         Both teams finish with the same divisional record

·         Both teams have to finish tied in the standings (obvious for a tiebreaker to be used, but it forces some outcomes)

Currently, the Bengals can win the common opponent tiebreaker and the Ravens can’t.  If the above conditions are met, a Baltimore win over SD give Cincinnati this tiebreaker.  If the Ravens lose vs. SD, and the conditions above are met, the tiebreaker would be conference record.

Conference:  For this tiebreaker to come into play, all of the following must occur:

·         The Bengals and Ravens split

·         Both teams finish with the same divisional record

·         The Ravens must lose to the Chargers

·         Both teams finish with the same overall records

Similar to common opponents, there is a shortcut to this tiebreaker.  Look at out-of-conference games.  If both teams have the same non-conference record, the tiebreaker does not resolve the tie.  The team with the worse non-conference record wins the conference tiebreaker.  So far the Ravens are 2-0 vs. the NFC and the Bengals are 1-1.  The Ravens can win the conference tiebreaker only if they lose both remaining games vs. the NFC and the Bengals win both of theirs, but that, combined with the other preconditions is not mathematically possible.  For the Ravens to tie the conference tiebreaker they need to lose 1 more NFC game while the Bengals win both of their remaining NFC West tilts.  However, that would put the Ravens 2 full games behind the Bengals with only 1 game for each team that does would not impact a previous tiebreaker (Bal vs. Ind, Cin vs. Hou).  After just 8 games, the Ravens can neither win nor tie a conference tiebreaker without winning a previous tiebreaker. 

Since the Ravens can’t win the common opponent tiebreaker, the Bengals will win the division in a 2-way tiebreaker versus the Ravens that falls to the common opponent tiebreaker or further.

I have seen the question asked as to whether or not the Ravens would prefer to see Pit or Cin win this weekend.  Based on the current tiebreaker situation, it’s fairly clear to me the Ravens need a Cincinnati loss much worse than a Pittsburgh loss.