Prior to Sunday the Ravens had a 57-1 record with a +2 or greater turnover margin, since 2000.  That record with a turnover advantage is cited weekly in the Ravens press release.  It is to 2011 football statistics what the Yankees’ record entering the 8th inning with the lead was 30 years ago to baseball statistics.  It’s deceptively good, because there is not a meaningful context for the typical fan.  Bill James wrote that the Yankees 51-3 record in 1981 when leading entering the 8th inning wasn’t particularly exceptional (only about 2 games better than expectation for that many leads).  It really seemed less so when James revealed the Yankees were a league-worst 0-41 when trailing after 7! The turnover relationship has a chicken/egg relationship with wins, because the trailing team takes increased interception risk in trying to catch up.  For the last 12 years, the Ravens have been one of the most consistently successful franchises...

I would have liked to avoid the topic of the week, but it’s difficult not to talk about Flacco with a game of these extremes. First, let’s look at the pressure brought by the Texans.  They rushed between 4 and 7 every pass play.  To summarize by number of pass rushers: 4:  12 plays for 15 yards, 1.3 YPP, 4 sacks 5:  5/22, 4.4 YPP, 1 sack 6:  8/21, 2.6 YPP 7:  7/82, 11.7 YPP These numbers tell a story without much further subjective analysis, but I want to speak specifically to the 4 and 7-man rush schemes.  It would be a fair criticism of Flacco to say he hasn’t always known what to do with the extra time afforded by opposing 4-man rushes.  This game, however, he had ample time and space (ATS) on just 3 of 12 occasions when the Texans rushed 4.  Of the 4 sacks with a 4-man rush, 3 were fast-developing and the 4th (Q3, 13:52) involved fast-developing pressure that evolved into a slow-developing sack.  That’s...

Chuck Pagano came up with another game plan well suited to the opponent.  The Ravens were able to limit the damage from the Houston running game and with minimal pressure on Yates, forced him to throw 37 times directly into the strength of the Ravens defense. If you were genetically designing a new super soldier, you’d want to start with some of TJ’s DNA for his fearlessness. Most veteran quarterbacks playing the Ravens seem to look for Ed Reed and throw away from him.  Yates has a clearly-demonstrated affinity with Andre Johnson, but no apparent fear of the Ravens’ most talented defenders.  This led to 5 excellent interception opportunities of which 3 were converted: ·         (Q1, 4:41) Lewis stepped in front of the pass for Johnson, who was bracketed by Webb, but dropped an easy interception. ·         (Q1, 3:21) Yates threw short right for Johnson, who was ...

Ask 100 folks to come up with 3 adjectives to describe the Ravens’ defense and you’ll get a lot of overlap.  I’m guessing the most common words might be aggressive, physical, and opportunistic.  It’s that last word I want to examine for a moment. The Ravens had 13 passes defensed versus the Bengals on Sunday.  For the season, they lead the league in passes defensed with 112.  That’s 8 more than 2nd place San Francisco.  Unlike past seasons, however, they aren’t converting those hands on the football to interceptions as often.  The Ravens are in the middle of the pack with 15 interceptions, but are 28th in interceptions per PD with 1 pick every 7.47 PDs.  If they had a league-average ratio of INTs per PD, they would have 21 interceptions.  What team has had better ball skills (and no doubt a little more luck)?  That would be the Patriots who have intercepted 23 passes on just 58 PDs.  That works o...

The Ravens get all the calls.  Just ask any Steelers fan. Torrey Smith has drawn the 3 longest pass interference calls in the league this season (50 yards at Jax, 50 yards vs. SF, 60 yards vs. Cle).  No one else has drawn such a foul in excess of 45 yards.  The 60-yard PI Sunday is the longest I can ever recall.  Flacco threw the ball approximately 65 yards and Smith had separation from both Haden (via a double move) and Adams (via speed).  Adams was closer and tried to catch up as the ball was underthrown.  He contacted Smith several times as the ball arrived without turning his head.  One thing folks don’t seem to understand is just how predictable pass interference is based on the abilities of both Flacco and Smith.  Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the NFL and Smith has a burst he can turn on seemingly at will to gain separation.  When that happens, the defender will begin to flail.  If the ball is on target, Smith w...

Talk about history repeating itself. In last year’s week 16 game (12/26/10), the Ravens and Browns played a very similar game.  In Cleveland that day, the Ravens benefitted from a number of Browns’ miscues to win 20-10.  Here’s a link On Sunday, the Ravens faced a Browns team that: ·         Exercised awful clock management at the end of the 2nd quarter ·         Used all 6 timeouts used on offense ·         Lollygagged their way through a drive beginning with 6:50 to go in the game which assured that it would be their only shot ·         Committed 2 false start penalties ·         Dropped several passes ·         Committed a critical encroachment penalty to surrender a first down on 4...

Sometimes it’s not about your players. As a fan, it’s natural to want to pinpoint an explanation for a game like Sunday’s.  It’s easiest to develop a theory related to either outside circumstances or the players/coaches we know well.  Ideally we’d ascribe it to some temporary or correctable problem.  There was lousy play calling, Webb’s injury, blind officials, and the Chargers fell on every loose ball.  You’ve heard the excuses. In this case, I think their athletes simply outplayed ours.  Most significantly, Rivers had an amazing night of touch passing while Jared Gaither has been one of the best left tackles in the NFL since he joined the Chargers. Rivers only dropped back 23 times, but wasn’t sacked or intercepted, threw a TD among 17 completions, had a passer rating of 127.1 and gained 11.7 yards per pass play (YPP). I normally score the Ravens’ offensive linemen each game, but this week I decided to...

The Ravens returned to a style that has served them well versus overmatched opponents in the Harbaugh era, small ball. Some examples: •             The Ravens took just 1 deep shot the entire game, a 35-yard pass intended for Smith (Q2, 1:12) where Lacey appeared to get away with pass interference. •             The Ravens have played very conservatively on 2nd and short (1 or 2 yards to go) of late.  In the last 3 games they have had 9 such plays with 8 runs (Leach 4/4 first downs, Williams 2/2, Rice 1 for 2) and 1 pass (WR screen right to Torrey Smith for 3 yards). •             Derrick Mason’s signature route as a Raven was the 10-yard hitch outside the numbers.  It is ideal for Joe’s arm strength, he and Mason had a good understanding on timing, Derrick would ru...

For a defensive laugher, the Ravens forgot a lot of punch lines. The Ravens dominated by most measures, yet went 0 for 3 recovering the fumbles they forced and left some interceptions on the field.  While it was good to see some of the young players get a chance on the final drive, it was disappointing to see the Ravens render their own pass rush impotent by playing so soft on the corners.  That led to the only touchdown allowed. I’ve got more detail on Suggs below, but just where does he stand for Defensive Player of the Year at this point?  He is peaking at the right time, but he still needs a strong finish to be the obvious selection.  As I see it, there are 5 other significant competitors: •             DeMarcus Ware (Pros:  Been in the discussion longer, similar sack/QH stats to Suggs, Cons: Injury, borderline playoff team, not as good turnover stats) •    ...

The Ravens returned to a style that has served them well versus overmatched opponents in the Harbaugh era, small ball. Some examples: ·         The Ravens took just 1 deep shot the entire game, a 35-yard pass intended for Smith (Q2, 1:12) where Lacey appeared to get away with pass interference. ·         The Ravens have played very conservatively on 2nd and short (1 or 2 yards to go) of late.  In the last 3 games they have had 9 such plays with 8 runs (Leach 4/4 first downs, Williams 2/2, Rice 1 for 2) and 1 pass (WR screen right to Torrey Smith for 3 yards). ·         Derrick Mason’s signature route as a Raven was the 10-yard hitch outside the numbers.  It is ideal for Joe’s arm strength, he and Mason had a good understanding on timing, Derrick would run it 3-6 times per game, and other teams didn’t find a way to stop it...