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Fantasy Blitz - ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS TO CONSIDER ON DRAFT DAY

Posted On: 6/1/06
Written By:  
Kurt Backert
ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS TO CONSIDER ON DRAFT DAY
Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Antonio Gates, and Jeremy Shockey, they have made the TE position important again. Just ten years ago they were no more than an extra blocker. In fantasy football ten years ago Shannon Sharpe, Wesley Walls, and Mark Chmura were the only TE’s that would be selected in an entire fantasy draft. Now the position has made a strong comeback, as most leagues now require you to start a TE every week. This week we take a look a look at the four rookie TE’s who we think have the best chance to score fantasy points this season. For the record, the most touchdowns scored by a rookie TE is 12 by Mike Ditka in 1961. Can our top ranked player get there?  Probably not!  His talent is certainly there but he will be starting for one of the worst offenses in football. 
  
Keep in mind, the average starting TE in most fantasy leagues is not scoring more than 5 touchdowns or so, Antonio Gates of course is the exception to this. With the right player you can gain a fast advantage on your other owners at this position. Again just as with any position, fantasy publications have a tendency to rank a rookie TE lower just based on the fact he is a first year player. There are some limited possibilities with these four players, and two of them will not be on anyone’s draft board.
 
1.      Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers. Davis walks into a situation where as a rookie he is the best skilled player on his new team. He is considered to be the best athlete in the college class of 2006. At Maryland he was an accomplished blocker to go with a great pair of hands. His 4.38 time in the forty blew the scouts away while his combine workout is considered to be the best in combine history. He caught 51 passes for 871 yards and six touchdowns, and had a 17 yard average playing for the Terps last year despite being double teamed on every play.
 
He will suit up for head coach Mike Nolan and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Davis will start from day one. Last year the 49ers completed 20 passes for no touchdowns to a collection of 4 no-name TE’s.  Unless Davis is injured he will get all the snaps. The problem Davis and his future fantasy owners have this year is can quarterbacks Alex Smith and Trent Dilfer get him the ball. Along with that the starting wide receivers, Antonio Bryant, and Arnaz Battle are not exactly Hall of Fame caliber and the running game is one of the league’s worst. We will cover those points in more detail in a moment.
 
The good news is, if Davis lives up to just 50% of his potential he should be a starting TE in deeper leagues or a top reserve at least. The 49ers will look to him help Smith as much as possible.
 
2.      Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars. Lewis comes to the Jaguars after catching 58 passes for 742 yards and 10 ten touchdowns last year at UCLA. He has wide receiver skills in a TE’s body.  He grades as an above average blocker, ready to play in the NFL.
 
Lewis joins a team that has never had a TE catch more than 5 touchdowns in a season in their 11 years in the league. Lewis should be able to step in and win the starting position from veteran Kyle Brady who had one score last year and 4th year pro George Wrightster who scored twice. While Lewis has the credentials to be a major scorer in fantasy football his largest obstacle will be to get the conservative Jaguar offense and quarterback Byron Leftwich to throw him the ball. This has always been a team that throws to the outside and uses a variety of three wide receiver sets to get one of them open. We would have witnessed that scheme again in 2006 by the 12-4 Jaguars, but veteran wide receiver Jimmy Smith retired leaving Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, and Reggie Willimas as the wide receivers.
 
Smith was Leftwich’s go to receiver, catching 70 passes last year when most thought he was finished. This could create an opening for Lewis to make an immediate fantasy impact and produce from day one. The possibility is there, but for this year don’t count on Lewis catching more than a couple of scores. We see the Jaguars beginning the season attempting to make one of their wide receivers, probably Jones, Leftwich’s new go to receiver. Take Lewis as a reserve TE in one of your last rounds.  As the season progresses and if Leftwich does not develop a rapport with Jones, Wilford, or Williams, Lewis could still make an impact but it will not come before mid season.
 
3.      Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos. As in last week’s article featuring rookie wide receivers, another Western Michigan alum is our player in the number three slot. Tony Scheffler played in a pro style offense for the Western Michigan Broncos, catching 57 passes for 668 yards and nine touchdowns last year.
 
He brings to the NFL’s version of the Broncos tremendous pass catching skills yet he graded out as only average in blocking. With the Broncos going with Tatum Bell at running back and losing power back Mike Anderson to the Ravens via free agency, look for  veteran Stephen Alexander to begin the season as the starter at TE due to his blocking skills.  Scheffler will get his chances, but early in the season only in certain gold zone opportunities. Keep in mind quarterback Jake Plummer threw five gold zone touchdown passes to fullback Kyle Johnson last year. Linebackers will rotate towards Johnson in the gold zone possibly giving Scheffler some single coverage.  You may be able to find value in Scheffler from that perspective. That may be the extent of his fantasy worth this first year. Head coach Mike Shanahan will stick with the more experienced Alexander to help the running game and only use Scheffler in certain situations. Grab Scheffler as a late reserve at TE.  You should get a few touchdowns this year and look for better statistics down the road with him. He is the Bronco TE of the future.
 
4.      Marques Colton, New Orleans Saints. The Saints made Marques Colston of Hofstra, their 7th round pick. He was almost the last player drafted. At Hofstra, Colston was listed as a wide receiver. He is 6’4’’ 220 lbs with tremendous leaping skills. His strength was catching the ball over the middle. He hauled in 70 passes for 975 yards and five touchdowns last year.  New head coach Sean Payton will switch Colston to TE and use veteran TE Ernie Conwell to mentor Colston as he learns his new position.
 
There were 16 TE’s selected ahead of Colston but we feel he can make an impact this year in fantasy, although it is a gamble to say the least. A lot has to go right for Colston just to get playing time, but if he does he will score. He needs to unseat incumbent Zach Hilton who caught 35 passes for one touchdown last year.  To do that, he has to show he can block for Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. We feel with Conwell’s and Payton’s help he not only will make the team but eventually find his way to the starting position this year. If he accomplishes that, he will be playing with veteran quarterback Drew Brees. The only statistic you need to know from here is that Brees threw fifty one touchdown passes the last two years with the Chargers. Twenty-three of them went to TE Antonio Gates, a former basketball player from Kent State. Gates barely made the Chargers his first year but worked with Brees after practices to get a chance to play, then earned his way into becoming Brees’ go to receiver. Gates was not supposed to make it in the NFL, and by his draft position neither should Colston.
 
But history is on Colston’s side with Brees at quarterback, and I always go with history. You can use your last pick to get Colston, no one will have him on their draft board, but if things align the right way, Colston could bring you more value based on his draft selection position than any other player on your roster.

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Posted On: 6/1/06
Written By:  
Kurt Backert

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