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Fantasy Blitz - ROOKIE RECEIVERS R RISKY!

Posted On: 5/26/06
Written By:  
Kurt Backert
ROOKIE RECEIVERS R RISKY!
Most scouts and NFL general managers agree, the most difficult skill position to learn in the NFL besides quarterback is wide receiver. With that in mind most rookie wide receivers do not make major fantasy impacts. Two relatively recent exceptions are Randy Moss’ rookie year in 1998 when he set an NFL record with 17 touchdown receptions. The Cardinals Anquan Boldin set the rookie record with 101 receptions in 2003, along with the second highest yardage total for rookies in history with 1,377 yards. This year’s class of wide receivers while solid, probably does not have anyone who will be in a situation to come close to those statistics.
 
Keep in mind though, drafting the right rookie in the right situation can bring significant value to your roster and you will not have to spend an early pick. There are a few in this class who can contribute points to your team given the right situation. While none of them should be your number one or even number two receiver, they could make their way into the No. 3 spot on your roster.  And that is particularly important for leagues using three wide receivers.
 
Rookie wide receivers are not given much respect by the top fantasy publications.  However with that in mind, let’s consider a few that you could find late in your draft that just might develop into a No. 3 or top reserve.
 
1.      Chad Jackson, New England Patriots. Unlike the running backs and quarterbacks the best wide receiver coming out of college has the best chance to make the highest fantasy impact. Chad Jackson caught 88 passes for 900 yards and 9 touchdowns last year at the University of Florida. This was accomplished while working with a young quarterback in Chris Leak. He has better than 4.4 speed in the forty and has the ability to catch the ball traffic.
 
He walks into almost a perfect situation in New England.  Tom Brady threw for 26 touchdowns last year and second leading receiver David Givens left in free agency. Jackson should be able to compete for the second starting wide out position. Deion Branch will be one starter and the Patriots brought in Reche Caldwell from the Chargers via free agency. They also lost Tim Dwight in another free agency move to the Jets. Jackson will have to battle not only Caldwell but also hold over fan favorite Troy Brown. Jackson should be able to take over the starting role.
 
With that said and playing with Tom Brady you would think a double digit touchdown season is possible, but don’t count on it.  If you have ever had any receivers from the Patriots the one thing you can count on is that Brady spreads the ball around better than any quarterback in football. Branch led the team with 5 scores last year. Being a starting wide receiver for the Patriots means you play the first couple of plays, they begin shuffling during the first series. Everyone on the depth chart touches the ball. It has been anyone’s guess as to who will be there when they are in the red zone.  Jackson’s talent and New England’s offense puts him in the best position to score more than any of his fellow classmate’s in 2006.
 
2.      Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers. Holmes like Jackson has a good chance to win a starting job his rookie season. Antwaan Randle El left for the Redskins leaving Holmes to compete with Quincy Morgan and Cedrick Wilson for a starting position.  My money is on Holmes.
 
Holmes caught 53 passes for 977 yards and 11 touchdowns at Ohio State last year and has the ability to get deep, something all of the Steelers incumbent wide receivers lack. The one drawback is while Randle El was the other starting wide out opposite Hines Ward, Randle El caught only 35 passes good for just one touchdown during the 2005 regular season. Ward was quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s go to receiver catching 11 touchdowns and rookie TE Heath Miller contributed six. Randle El lost fantasy points to both of them. Can Holmes contribute more than Randle El?
 
You also have to consider that the Steelers are a run first team, Holmes while perhaps starting probably will not post huge fantasy statistics this year. Look for bigger things down the road with him but this year he is no more than a decent third receiver who you should be able to get late in your draft.
 
3.      Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers.  I know , the first thing you say when you read this is “Who?”. This guy can play and will get every chance to be on the field a lot this year. Jennings was the Packers second round pick out of Western Michigan. There he snared 98 passes for 1,259 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. You may be saying “but that was in the MAC Conference, he didn’t play anyone!”  Consider this -- Randy Moss and Ben Roethlisberger both are alumni of MAC schools and like these players, Jennings played in a pro style offense at Western Michigan.  He is also regarded as the most disciplined route runner in this year’s class of wide receivers.
 
The Packers traded Javon Walker to the Broncos and Antonio Chatman is now in Cincinnati via free agency. This leaves Brett Favre’s favorite receiver Donald Driver as the number one target. The second receiving position may be up for grabs. Veteran Robert Ferguson is battling knee injuries and the Packers added two underachieving wide receivers, Rod Gardner and Marc Boerigter by way of free agency. Jennings may not start the season but he will see the ball this year and it is just a matter of time before he starts. Like Holmes we see him this year as only being a third receiver at best or more likely a reserve in deeper leagues. You can wait to get him, he may not show up on many publication’s draft boards, but Jennings will be a major part of the Packer passing game for years to come.
 
4.      Michael Robinson, San Francisco 49ers.  Robinson threw 16 touchdown passes and ran for 11 for Penn State last year as their starting quarterback.  He was one of the best kept secrets in college football last year. Head coach Mike Nolan made Robinson the 49ers 4th round pick with the intention of moving him to wide receiver. Robinson has the size, speed and hands to play wide receiver at the NFL level.
 
Nolan needs a playmaker as the 49ers threw just 8 touchdown passes last year. First round pick Alex Smith threw just one. Brandon Lloyd, their leading receiver from last year left for the Redskins in free agency and he caught 5 of the eight touchdowns. Arnaz Battle, an overachiever on the other side caught the other three.  Battle will return and should start again. San Francisco signed Antonio Bryant from the Browns.  Bryant caught 4 touchdowns last year and has 16 for his career. Bryant is listed as a starter now but Nolan envisions Robinson as playing an Antwaan Randle El and Kordell Stewart role for them. They need to make plays and Smith needs options. Robinson fits the 49ers needs. His production this first year is difficult to gauge at this time. We see him as being the 49ers third receiver and participating in numerous gadget plays. He will not show up on anyone’s draft board but take a chance on this guy with one of your last picks. He could be one of the top sleepers from this year’s college draft.
 
Well, maybe not any more….

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Posted On: 5/26/06
Written By:  
Kurt Backert

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