The Backfields of the AFC, Part I

In this two part article we will preview the running back situations of all 32 teams. Part I will be the AFC, part II the NFC running backs.

Every year the top scoring quarterbacks score more points than the top running backs, but that said it has been statistically proven year after year that you still have to select a running back with your first pick in almost every circumstance. This year if you are holding a first round selection of No. 8 or lower, you could be swayed and perhaps rightfully so, to select Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Larry Fitzgerald, or even Aaron Rodgers.

All 24x7 fantasy articles are based on a twelve team league that starts 2 running backs. My notes may include listing a running back as a RB I, that indicates he is ranked between 1 and 12 on my board as of now; RB II 13-24; RB III 25-36 while some will not have any listing.

While running back remains the most important position on the fantasy football field, owners will be challenged by the NFL trendy approach to the position – running back “by committee.” Fewer and fewer teams will have that one go to back, such as the Vikings with Adrian Peterson, but even he gives touches away to Chester Taylor. And if Brett Favre finds his way there, Peterson’s weakness as a receiver could cost him even more work and reduce his value. Admittedly it is still early for any viable rankings to be posted, but it is always the right time to know the situation of each team’s running back depth chart.

AFC East

Buffalo, Marshawn Lynch’s value is dropping, low RB III as of now, he will miss at least the first 2 games because of suspension and Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes are proven runners and receivers, both will be drafted.

Miami, Ronnie Brown had just two 20-carry games in 2008, he and Ricky Williams will continue to share, and Williams had just about the same amount of receptions as Brown, despite the “Wildcat” formation hype, Brown is a high RB III

New England, This as you should know is fantasy nightmare, stay away from Laurence Maroney, he may just return kicks and might not make the team at all, Sammy Morris will get the goal line carries, he had 7 touchdowns last year and Kevin Faulk brings some value in points per reception leagues , he had fifty eight catches in 2008.  Veteran Fred Taylor will get some carries also and could surprisingly emerge as the main back later in the season, remember Super Bowl winners Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon….then there is BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the roster, but as of now  Morris has the most value and he is barely in the top 40 on my board as of now.

Jets, The word is that Thomas Jones will share more carries with Leon Washington, with that Jones is a low RB II right now, and Washington who had 8 scores in 2008 is 37^th on my board but we need to see them in camp, Jones could move higher. 

AFC North

Ravens, In 2008 they were a text book running back by committee team. Will Cam Cameron keep it the same? One way to view it is, “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it”, but my feeling is that Willis McGahee if healthy has the most value here. Both he and Le’Ron McClain are RB III’s with McGahee at 31^st on my board and McClain a couple of spots behind him as of now, but camp of course could change everything, Ray Rice is worth drafting late in almost every scoring format.

Bengals, You can laugh at this if you want but the Bengals might be the most improved team in the NFL this year. With Carson Palmer back and the fact that Marvin Lewis has put Cedric Benson on the right path, gives them better fantasy value. Benson will be the main back, he had sixty three carries for two hundred eighty two yards their last 2 games in 2008, he is a middle of the pack RB III, the top reason he is that low is because he has to face the Ravens and Steelers run defenses twice each in the first ten weeks of the season.

Browns, Jamal Lewis will be the featured back again, but it is obvious he is at the end of his career, Eric Mangini though will give him a heavy workload, this makes him a low RB II. Jerome Harrison only has value if Lewis is injured, handcuff him to Lewis in deeper leagues.

Steelers, This appears to be a crowded backfield but if healthy, Willie Parker will get most of the touches. Rashard Mendenhall never got a chance to prove himself but offensive coordinator Bruce Arians likes Parker, keep this in mind for those of you who are in scoring only leagues, rookie Frank Summers has the makings of a goal line back, Parker is a high RB III because of this and Mendenhall, but just like Thomas Jones, Parker could move higher on my board as camp develops. Mewelde Moore brings some value in point per reception leagues, he had 40 catches last year.

AFC South

Houston,  Steve Slaton emerged as the type of running back this franchise has been searching for, a durable, every down back, who can catch the ball.  He had 20 plus carries in 5 of his last six games and had 50 receptions, he is a low RB I. Handcuff veteran Chris Brown in case of an injury to Slaton.  

Colts, The Colts ranked 31^st in rushing in 2008, gaining less than 80 yards rushing a game. Joseph Addai was one of the biggest fantasy busts last year, gaining just over 500 yards and scoring 7 total touchdowns, not what you want from a 1^st round fantasy selection. The offensive line was the Colt’s worst since 1998, they will be better but not by that much, Addai’s totals will be better as well in 2009 but as the line goes so does Addai’s statistics,  he ranks as a low RB II as of now, he will always have scoring chances with Peyton Manning behind center. Rookie Donald Brown will fill the Dominic Rhodes role, and has some value, he is 55^th on my board, and will be drafted.

Jaguars, Maurice Jones-Drew comes into 2009 as one of the most sought after running backs in this year’s draft. Mostly because he been a scoring machine while sharing carries with Fred Taylor the past couple of years. With Taylor gone, expectations are high for the 5’ 7” Jones- Drew, who has never had a 1,000 yard rushing season. He will get more carries and receptions, he had 62 catches last year, and because of this gain more yardage. He is a RB I as of now and will be a top 5 pick in most drafts. Here though is why I throw a little caution to the wind, while being strong, at 5’ 7’, I see offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter measuring Jones-Drew’s touches to keep him fresh and he could lose the goal line carries to fullback Greg Jones.

Tennessee, Chris Johnson has the talent to be one of the best backs in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes he is a RB II. He had just one game last season with 20 carries and gives way to LenDale White at the goal line. White had fifteen touchdowns, there will be little or no change in the way the Titans use Johnson and White in 2009, Johnson will gain more yards than White again in 2009 and catch 40 plus passes,  White’s goal line carries makes him a high RB III and keeps Johnson from being fantasy elite.

AFC West

Denver, Head coach Josh McDaniels has always advocated the running back by committee theory while with the Patriots. Will he do so in Denver? The depth chart has highly touted rookie Knowshon Moreno, and veterans Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan. Fullback Peyton Hillis scored 5 touchdowns last year when everyone was injured. Moreno will get most of the carries, and early word is McDaniels wants to get him at least 20 touches a game, he is a high RB III now, but could move up as camp develops. You can wait to draft him and he could be one of the steals of this year’s draft. 

Kansas City, Running behind one of the worst lines in the NFL, disgruntled Larry Johnson averaged four and half yards a carry and scored five touchdowns. The Chiefs had to throw most of the time because they were behind in most games and Johnson did not get his accustomed workload. Because of talent Johnson ranks as a low RB II, and is one those fantasy players that you hope you do not have to draft because his role has not been defined. He is by far their best running back and new quarterback Matt Cassel should help but how head coach Todd Haley uses him is up in the air. If you draft him, use a late pick to handcuff Jamaal Charles to Johnson.  

Raiders, The Raiders on paper have one of the most talented running back corps in football, but horrible quarterbacking and offensive line play drive down their fantasy value. Darren McFadden should see most of the carries if head coach Tom Cable wakes up, and Michael Bush can be a punishing short yardage and goal line back to compliment him. Justin Fargas who has played above his talent level the past several seasons will see his workload passed onto the younger backs. McFadden is a low RB II, Bush is 53^rd on my board, but should be drafted.